Research & News
Daily Comment (September 19, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The news flow is unusually quiet this morning. The Kavanaugh hearings and trade continue to dominate the headlines. Here is what we are watching today: Trade: Financial markets are still struggling to discount the impact of the recent tariff announcement and China’s retaliation. It has become… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 18, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning and G’mar Hatima Tova this Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement. Equities are ticking higher this morning and oil is up strongly. Here is what we are watching today: Trade: As expected, the White House did put new tariffs in place on China. The… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Venezuelan Migration Crisis: Part I (September 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Venezuela has gone from “bad to worse” in recent years. In 1999, Hugo Chavez was elected president and took the country on a journey into Cuba-style socialism. Persistent government intrusion into the economy reduced private sector involvement. Although the oil sector was able to generate enough revenue to allow Chavez to fund his… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The weekend news was dominated by tropical events in the U.S. and the Far East, and the travails of SCOTUS candidate Kavanaugh. In addition, there were a plethora of retrospectives across the media focusing on “10 years after the crisis.” Here are the other items we… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 14, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Emerging markets have fallen in recent weeks. The decline is being driven by a couple of factors. First, the dollar has appreciated due to concerns that tariffs will restrict foreign country access to the U.S. consumer and the dollars they spend. In other words, if the U.S. restricts trade, countries will struggle… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 14, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Big tech under fire: Tech companies are coming under increased scrutiny from both left- and right-wing populists. Yesterday, Breitbart released a video of Google executives showing disappointment after President Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election. Prior to this incident, President Trump and… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 13, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Thursday! Here is what we are watching today: Trade talks back on: Equities are elevated this morning after it was revealed that the U.S. and China are open to restarting trade negotiations. This breakthrough came on the heels of President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 12, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are mostly quiet this morning. PPI (discussed below) came in lower than expected. Here are the other items we are watching today: EU pushes back against Hungary: With populists gaining political leverage in the EU, the establishment is fighting back and targeting Viktor Orban,… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 11, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a solemn day, the 17th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. Here is what we are watching today: Trade: Talks continue with Canada but reports suggest that dairy remains a major sticking point. China has asked the WTO for authorization to impose trade sanctions against the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Battle for Idlib (September 10, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Two years ago, it looked as if Syrian President Bashar Assad was either about to be ousted from power or doomed to control an ever-shrinking area of Syria. Islamic State, Kurds and various rebel groups controlled much of what once constituted Syria. In fact, the frontier between Syria and Iraq was mostly a… Read More »