Research & News
Daily Comment (September 10, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! Here is what we are watching today: Trade: There’s nothing new on NAFTA but President Trump increased the threat against China, calling for even more Chinese goods to come under tariff barriers. China is holding a meeting with U.S. financial services executives,[1] perhaps in… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (September 7, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady The Market Since mid-Q1, oil prices have ranged from a low of around $64 to a high of $71 per barrel. Prices remain elevated, supported by OPEC production discipline, production problems in several OPEC nations, fears of new Iran sanctions and stable global oil demand. Prices and Inventories Inventory levels remain elevated… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 7, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Traditionally, the election season kicks off with Labor Day so, with last Monday’s holiday, the election cycle is upon us. The midterm election year tends to be lackluster for equities until Q4, when a strong rally usually develops. The data for this chart is developed by taking the weekly closes for the… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 7, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s employment Friday. We cover the data in detail below, but the quick take is that labor markets are tightening. Although the unemployment rate rose, both the labor force and underemployment fell. August can have seasonal adjustment issues (it can be difficult to capture school/employment flows)… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 6, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] For financial markets, it’s fairly quiet (especially compared to the political turmoil in Washington) with EM still coming under pressure. Here is what we are watching today: New Chinese tariffs? One of the effects of the Woodward book and yesterday’s anonymous editorial is that there appears… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a risk-off day this morning as worries about global trade and emerging market contagion continue to mount. Here is what we are watching this morning: BREAKING: There are reports that Germany is willing to make concessions to the U.K. The GBP jumped on the news. … Read More »
Daily Comment (September 4, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Back in session! Summer’s over. Today is all about the dollar, EM and oil. Here is what we are watching: Emerging markets: Emerging equities were mixed overnight, with China doing well but others not so much. It’s looking like concerns are breaking into two broad categories. … Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 31, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee In light of the recent conviction of Paul Manafort and the guilty pleas by Michael Cohen, along with the upcoming midterm elections, we have been receiving questions about the political landscape going into winter. In this report, we will discuss our baseline expectations for political trends and their potential effect on financial… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 31, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] So, we have to say “goodbye” to summer…and have a great Labor Day! Here is what we are watching today: Emerging fears: The two problem nations, Argentina and Turkey, continue to struggle. Argentina has taken a beating; the currency is plunging to new depths and overnight… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 30, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] So far, it’s a quiet morning with a bit of a “risk-off” tone. Here is what we are watching today: An EU trade proposal? EU Commission President Juncker came to Washington this summer and convinced President Trump that the EU and the U.S. should negotiate on… Read More »