Research & News
Daily Comment (April 12, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a fairly quiet overnight session; the dollar reversed some of yesterday’s losses and equities are modestly higher. This is what we are watching: Ryan’s departure: Soon after last November’s elections, we framed the forthcoming political battle as “Ryan vs. Bannon.” Now, both are gone. … Read More »
Daily Comment (April 11, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s risk-off today; risk markets are lower on a swirl of issues that are weighing on sentiment. Here is what we are watching: Action on Syria: The president tweeted this morning, warning Syria and Russia that the U.S. is preparing an attack on Syria for its… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 10, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk-on is the order of the day. Here’s what’s driving it: Xi talks: Chairman Xi spoke at the Boao Forum yesterday evening and made promises to open China’s market to foreign investment and lower export impediments. He indicated that auto tariffs will be lowered. The tone… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Globalization: Part I (April 9, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady For much of recorded human history, we have seen waves of globalization and deglobalization.[1] Periods of globalization tend to be characterized by the emergence of either large regional hegemons or global hegemons. When these hegemons see their power wane, deglobalization occurs. Recently, globalization has come under fire. In some circles, being called a… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 9, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There is a whiff of “risk-on” this morning, with global equities higher while “risk-off” assets, such as gold and Treasuries, are lower. Presidential tweets were relatively calm over the weekend. Here is what we are watching this morning: Social media to Capitol Hill: Facebook (FB, 157.20)… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 6, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Recently, the three-month T-bill/Eurodollar spread (TED spread) has widened, raising concerns about financial stability. In this report, we will offer a primer on the spread and discuss its recent rise. The TED spread has two components; it’s a direction-of-rate spread and a flight-to-quality spread. Eurodollars (also known as LIBOR) represent dollar borrowing… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 6, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment day! We cover the data in detail below but the quick take is that it was much weaker than expected. Payrolls came in well below forecast and the unemployment rate held steady compared to an expected small decline. The data should be taken with… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities rebounded strongly yesterday after an opening sell-off. So far, U.S. stocks are building on yesterday’s gains. Here is what we are watching this morning: As a point of reference: We have a weekly chart on the S&P 500 P/E ratio at the end of this… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 4, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk markets are down this morning on continued trade worries. Here are the key items we are watching this morning: Trade wars: The U.S. announced tariffs on $50 bn of Chinese imports[1] and China responded in kind. Goods included in China’s tariffs include most of the… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 3, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing a bit of a recovery this morning after a hard sell-off yesterday. Here are our thoughts: This is mostly about technology: Tech companies have, until recently, had a reputation for good. Their goal seemed to be to improve our lives at apparently low… Read More »