Research & News
Daily Comment (April 2, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing a mixed market this morning—U.S. equity futures are lower as are Treasury prices, while commodities are higher. Much of Europe is closed today for Easter Monday. Here is what we are watching this morning: China retaliates…sort of: China slapped tariffs on 125 items,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 29, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee After peaking at 2872.87 on January 26, the S&P 500 has been in a corrective phase. The index fell just over 10% and has been range bound ever since, well below the aforementioned high. Here are the primary reasons equities have struggled: Valuations became a bit stretched: The P/E, as we calculate… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 29, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk assets are trending higher this morning in a quiet trade. Several markets are closed today for Holy Thursday and U.S. markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday. A number of European markets will close for Easter Monday. When a group of markets are closed… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 28, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities were weak around the world but we are seeing a mixed recovery in the early U.S. trade. Technology remains under pressure. Here is what we are watching today: Oops: Yesterday, we bravely opined that Kim Jong-un probably didn’t go to China. Well, today we get… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 27, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s risk-on around the world so far today. Here is what we are watching: Is Kim in Beijing? Although a number of reports have speculated the leader of North Korea has traveled to China, this news has yet to be confirmed. If he did travel to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The North Korean Summit: Part II (March 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Easter holiday, the next report will be published on April 9.) Last week,[1] we discussed the six major nations involved in the North Korean issue and each country’s geopolitical goals, constraints and meeting positions for the recently proposed summit between the U.S. and North Korea. This week, we will examine… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk assets are rising this morning after the weekend media suggests the rhetoric on trade is much more potent than the reality. Here is what we are watching this morning: BREAKING: President Trump to expel 60 Russian diplomats, joining 14 other EU nations taking similar actions… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 23, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, the Federal Reserve published its Financial Accounts of the United States report, formerly known as the Flow of Funds report. The report is a storehouse of important financial information. In this most recent report, a few things emerged that raised concerns. The first issue is net saving. Net saving is… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 23, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a dark and stormy night for risk assets. However, we are seeing glimmers of light in U.S. equity futures as they have recovered their overnight losses and have turned positive. Here’s what we are watching: A budget deal: The budget deal passed Congress, meaning… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 22, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a risk-off morning so far. Equities are declining, Treasury yields are falling and the JPY is appreciating. The factors hitting risk markets are softer than expected PMI data (see table below) and trade fears. Here is what we are watching this morning: China trade: Tomorrow,… Read More »