Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 17, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the CPI data for July. Inflation continues to rise; the overall rate rose 2.9% and the closely watched core rate (the rate less food and energy) rose to 2.4%, the highest rate since September 2008. Rising inflation raises policy concerns. In this week’s report,… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! It’s a mixed market situation and somewhat less volatile than action earlier in the week. Here is what we are watching today: End of quarterly earnings? President Trump tweeted[1] this morning that he is directing the SEC to study the costs and benefits of… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 16, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] A bit of risk-on has returned this morning. Trade hopes appear to be the key reason. The dollar is a bit weaker, while equities and commodities are higher as are Treasury yields. Here is what we are watching today: China trade talks: China is sending the… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 15, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk-off has returned with a vengeance this morning. Despite a continued lift in the Turkish lira (TRY), global equity markets are lower. Some of this decline is being driven by a stronger dollar and cratering commodity prices. Here is what we are watching today: Contagion fears:[1]… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 14, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing some risk-on behavior this morning; the Turkish lira is higher but it looks more like a deceased feline rebound rather than anything of substance. Here is what we are watching today: Turkey: As noted above, the TRY is higher this morning, rebounding about… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Iran Sanctions and Potential Responses: Part III (August 13, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady The Trump administration withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal earlier this year and plans to implement sanctions on the country in two phases, the first of which went into effect in early August with a second round in November. In Part I of this report, we introduced this topic and covered the first… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 13, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures have grinded to unchanged, while global equity markets remain weak. The dollar is higher which is putting downward pressure on commodity markets. Treasuries are mostly steady. Here is what we are watching: Talking Turkey: The Erdogan government announced a series of measures this… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 10, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last year, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor to gauge market conditions. The indicator is constructed with commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence. The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 10, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are down as investors are concerned that a possible collapse of the Turkish lira could spill over to the Eurozone. Here is what we are watching: Economic warfare? Proposed U.S. sanctions on Turkey and Russia have caused the currencies in the respective countries to fall… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 9, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are quiet this morning. Here is what we are watching: Trade update: Russia is facing another round of sanctions,[1] these tied to the chemical weapons poisoning in April of British citizen and former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter. The sanctions are part of… Read More »