Research & News
Daily Comment (August 8, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Today’s trade is becalmed—there is nothing major happening in any markets thus far. This sort of activity is very typical for August. Here is what we are watching today. Trade news: The U.S. announced that $16 bn of Chinese imports will face an additional 25% tariff.[1] … Read More »
Daily Comment (August 7, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing some risk-on behavior this morning; global equities are moving higher, the dollar is a bit weaker, precious metals are stronger and Treasury rates are rising. Here is what we are watching today. Primaries today: The media will be mostly focused on primaries being… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Iran Sanctions and Potential Responses: Part II (August 6, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we introduced the topic of the Trump administration’s decision to implement sanctions on Iran and covered two potential responses from Iran, which were restarting its nuclear program and projecting power. This week, we will discuss the threat to the Strait of Hormuz. Response #3: Closing the Strait of Hormuz On its… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 6, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are rather quiet this morning, a reflection of the “dog days” of summer. However, there was a lot of news over the weekend. Let’s dig in: Trade talks: China indicated it is preparing for a protracted trade war.[1] In a new turn, Chinese state media… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 3, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee At the end of June, we published a study of how the equity and bond markets reacted to the inversion of the yield curve. This week’s report takes that inversion data and compares it to how the 10 sectors of the S&P 500 perform.[1] For this report, we will use the two-year/10-year… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 3, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Beer Day![1] Also, it’s employment data day. We detail the data below but the quick take is that the data is a bit better than expected but not so strong as to change policy. Financial markets are treating the report with some caution, mostly due… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 2, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a risk-off morning. The news driving the weakness in equities appears to be related to escalating trade tensions with China. Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade update: Yesterday, there were reports that the White House was considering increasing the tariff rate on… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 1, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy August! Summer is winding down—it seems like it just started. Here is what we are watching: The Fed: The meeting ends this afternoon. No rate hike is forecast.[1] The only item of interest will be the statement, which probably won’t tell us anything. Even so,… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 31, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s July 31st, the Feast Day of St. Ignatius of Loyola, the founder of the Society of Jesus (Jesuits). Here is what we are watching: BREAKING: CHINA SEEKING NEW TRADE TALKS TO DEFUSE TRADE WAR. EQUITIES RISE ON NEWS. BOJ: The BOJ has spoken and not… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Iran Sanctions and Potential Responses: Part I (July 30, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady In May, the Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The European participants (the other signatories were the U.K., Russia, France, Germany and China) tried to convince President Trump that leaving the pact would be a mistake, but President Trump has… Read More »