Research & News
Daily Comment (August 24, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Markets are fairly quiet this morning. Here is what we are watching today: Powell speaks: The Jackson Hole meeting is underway. Chair Powell will start speaking around 10:00 EDT. We don’t expect anything other than “steady as she goes,” meaning at least one more… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 22, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing a bit of risk-off this morning on the big political stories from yesterday. However, the emphasis is on “bit”; equity weakness isn’t excessive, the dollar is modestly weaker, gold is higher but not by a lot and Treasury yields are down but no… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 21, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big story today is a bit of dollar weakness, which is putting some upward pressure on interest rates and helping precious metals. Here is what we are watching today: Trump talks: In a wide-ranging interview,[1] President Trump warned not to expect much from the Chinese… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkey Crisis: Part I (August 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Over the past few months, Turkey has become a major topic of interest. Recep Erdogan won re-election to the presidency in June 2018. This event was important because a referendum on a new constitution in 2017 gave the office of the president sweeping powers; the previous constitution was based on a parliamentary model… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Monday…back to the salt mines! It’s a “green” day so far this morning—equities are higher, but so are longer duration Treasury prices and beleaguered metals are even bouncing a bit higher. The dollar is a bit lower. Here is what we are watching today: Turkey… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 17, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the CPI data for July. Inflation continues to rise; the overall rate rose 2.9% and the closely watched core rate (the rate less food and energy) rose to 2.4%, the highest rate since September 2008. Rising inflation raises policy concerns. In this week’s report,… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! It’s a mixed market situation and somewhat less volatile than action earlier in the week. Here is what we are watching today: End of quarterly earnings? President Trump tweeted[1] this morning that he is directing the SEC to study the costs and benefits of… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 16, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] A bit of risk-on has returned this morning. Trade hopes appear to be the key reason. The dollar is a bit weaker, while equities and commodities are higher as are Treasury yields. Here is what we are watching today: China trade talks: China is sending the… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 15, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk-off has returned with a vengeance this morning. Despite a continued lift in the Turkish lira (TRY), global equity markets are lower. Some of this decline is being driven by a stronger dollar and cratering commodity prices. Here is what we are watching today: Contagion fears:[1]… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 14, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing some risk-on behavior this morning; the Turkish lira is higher but it looks more like a deceased feline rebound rather than anything of substance. Here is what we are watching today: Turkey: As noted above, the TRY is higher this morning, rebounding about… Read More »