Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Return of AMLO (July 9, 2018)
by Thomas Wash On July 1, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or AMLO for short, became Mexico’s first leftist president in over three decades,[1] running on anti-establishment and anti-corruption platforms. The 64-year-old activist won with over 53% of the vote, the most since Mexico moved to a multi-party system. For the first time in nearly a century,… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 9, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! It looks like a risk-on day so far, with Treasury prices lower and equities higher. The dollar is a bit soft which has lifted metals prices. The lack of comment from the White House about trade appears to be helping equity markets. Here is… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 6, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Over the past quarter, emerging market equities have weakened; the primary culprit was a strengthening dollar, although concerns about softer non-U.S. growth likely played a role as well. The dollar’s strength appears to be caused by one of two factors. The first possibility is interest rate differentials, which are partly due to… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 6, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s employment day! We cover the data in detail below but the quick read is bullish. The key data point was a huge jump in the labor force, which increased 601k after falling 382k over the past three months. Thus, even with a rise in payrolls,… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Welcome back! Here is what we are watching this morning: On trade, it’s good news and bad news: The good news first…German automakers met with Richard Grenell, the U.S. Ambassador to Germany, and reaffirmed their support for zero tariffs on EU/U.S. auto trade.[1] The German automakers… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 3, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, have a safe and happy Independence Day! The “dog days” of summer officially begin today.[1] It looks like a risk-on day so far. U.S. financial markets close early for the mid-week Independence Day holiday. Equity markets close at… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 2, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s the first day of Q3! So far, it’s not an auspicious start. We did celebrate “Bobby Bonilla Day” yesterday, one of our favorite holidays.[1] There is lots of news this morning. Let’s dig in: Mexican elections: As expected, Lopez Obrador, otherwise known as AMLO, easily… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 29, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee With the recent narrowing of the yield curve, we have been receiving a number of questions about the impact of inversion. Defined, yield curve inversion is when short-duration interest rates rise above long-duration interest rates. The yield curve is arguably the single best indicator of recession. Therefore, with various calculations of the… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 29, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday and good riddance to Q2! It’s looking like a risk-on day. Lots of news today. Let’s dig in: EU summit: A deal was struck on immigration and refugees in a nearly all-night session.[1] The agreement says that seaborne migrants will be placed into processing… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 28, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As the second quarter winds down, this morning’s news flow is fairly quiet. GDP came in a bit soft (see below). Here is what we are watching this morning: The EU summit: EU leaders are meeting today through the weekend. The primary topic will be immigration… Read More »