Research & News
Daily Comment (June 27, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Here we are at mid-week. Financial markets are recovering this morning after a difficult overnight session. Here is what we are watching: Softening on trade? Around 7:35 AM EDT, the White House[1] announced it would not create a new regime to scrutinize Chinese investments and instead… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] After a rough day yesterday, financial markets are attempting to stabilize this morning. Here is what we are watching: Trouble in Iran: Protests are escalating in Iran. Comments on Twitter suggest there is widespread dissatisfaction with the government. Unconfirmed reports of crowds chanting “Leave Syria, think… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (June 25, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Independence Day holiday, the next report will be published July 9.) As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 25, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Monday. This morning, it’s trade, Turkey and OPEC. Here are the headlines: Trade: The Trump administration is preparing to put capital controls against Chinese investment in a variety of U.S. industries deemed critical for security. The industries are mostly in the technology sector. The president… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 22, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Cycle studies are common in analyzing markets. Such studies can be quite useful in some markets that are affected by seasonal factors, such as commodities. We all know it gets cold in the winter and rains in the spring, and measuring the timing of when market participants discount these events can offer… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 22, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We made it to Friday! Markets are rather quiet this morning as immigration has overshadowed trade concerns. We are seeing a bit of “risk-on” today after a rather rough week. Here is what we are watching this morning: OPEC: We have a deal. The cartel agreed… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 21, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Summer Solstice! Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade and the dollar: India joined other nations by applying tariffs against the U.S.[1] EU officials are worried that U.S. trade policy will upend its longstanding Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which is a system of… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Wednesday! Financial markets are moving steadily higher this morning, mostly on the lack of new trade pronouncements. Here is what we are watching today: Trade: The EU unveiled €2.8 bn of tariffs on U.S. goods[1] in retaliation to American tariffs. About a third of the… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 19, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s looking like a “tough Tuesday.” Risk-off is clearly evident—Treasuries, the yen and the dollar are higher, while gold is flat and equities, especially emerging markets, are under pressure. Oil and commodities are lower as well. Here’s the story: Trade: President Trump has threatened[1] an additional… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – China’s Foreign Reserves: Part III (June 18, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady This week, we will conclude our study on China’s foreign reserves. In Part I, we discussed the evolution of foreign reserves from gold to the dollar, with a historical focus. In Part II, we used the macroeconomic saving identity to analyze the economic relationship between China and the U.S. This week, using this… Read More »