Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thinking the Unthinkable (Again): Part II (January 29, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we published the first part[1] of this report looking at how the U.S. and other nations are changing their policies toward nuclear weapons. This is something of a refresh of a report we did seven years ago.[2] Since we published this earlier report, we have seen an increase in actual and… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 29, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s a “red day” as we are mostly seeing trend reversals across many markets—equity futures are pointing to a rare lower opening, Treasury yields have broken 2.70%, foreign exchange is weaker (dollar stronger) and gold is lower. Some of this looks like profit taking, although the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 26, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Equity markets have been steadily rising, with the major indices making a series of new all-time highs. The recent impetus to equities has been the tax law. As we detailed in our recent addendum to our 2018 Outlook,[1] the tax bill will shift about 1.3% of GDP to after-tax corporate profits. This… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Friday! President Trump just ended his speech in Davos and GDP came in soft. Here is what we are watching this morning: Trump’s speech in Davos: The speech can best be described as “selling America” as a place to invest. As we discussed yesterday, if… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 25, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The president arrived in Davos this morning and will give the keynote speech tomorrow, and the ECB met today. Here is what we are watching: The ECB: The ECB made no monetary policy changes, as expected. In his press conference, ECB President Draghi didn’t veer from… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 24, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The big market mover this morning is the dollar. Here is what we are watching: Treasury shift? During the 1980s into the 1990s, U.S. Treasury secretaries frequently tried to move the currency markets. James Baker was part of the Paris Accord in 1985 that led to… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2018)
The passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 significantly increased our earnings forecast for the S&P 500 for 2018 from $129.82 to $144.84. We do not expect major changes to economic growth stemming from the tax legislation. Fed policy should continue to tighten through increases in the fed funds rate and a… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 23, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] After all the news from yesterday, markets are fairly quiet this morning. This is what we are watching today: The shutdown ends: And it ends with mostly a whimper. Democrat Party leaders essentially ended the shutdown with a promise for a vote on DACA and an… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thinking the Unthinkable (Again): Part I (January 22, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Seven years ago we published a WGR on nuclear war and civil defense.[1] Over the past seven years, we have seen an increase in actual and potential nuclear proliferation. Both the Obama and Trump administrations have either reviewed or are reviewing their policies on nuclear weapons and we are clearly seeing a departure… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 22, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The media is focused on the government shutdown but, if the markets are a guide, there isn’t much to see. This is what we are watching this morning: BREAKING: The IMF has boosted its estimate for global GDP to 3.9%, up 0.2%, in part due to… Read More »