Research & News
Daily Comment (June 8, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Equities dipped overnight but are recovering a bit as we head toward the opening bell. There is a lot of news. Let’s dig in: G-7? Acrimony rules in front of the G-7 meeting. President Trump told reporters, “Russia should be allowed back in,” just… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 7, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are in the midst of a quiet rally as the S&P challenges the high end of the recent range. Oil is up and the dollar is down. Here is what we are following this morning: BREAKING: The Trump administration and ZTE (0763 HKD, 25.60)… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 6, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy National Drive-In Movie Day! And kudos to our favorite outdoor movie theater, the Skyway Drive-In in Fish Creek, WI.[1] Here is what we are watching this morning: ECB tightening? Peter Praet, the ECB’s chief economist, indicated today that policymakers would be taking a hard… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning—Happy National Moonshine Day![1] Here is what we are watching this morning: Oil and OPEC: The Trump administration has quietly asked OPEC[2] to boost oil output by 1.0 mbpd in a bid to lower oil prices and, as a result, gasoline prices. Undoubtedly we will… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – China’s Foreign Reserves: Part I (June 4, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady We often get questions about China’s foreign reserves. The fear is that China’s massive “pile” of foreign exchange reserves is a risk factor for U.S. markets. In the first part of this report, we will discuss the evolution of foreign reserves from gold to the dollar, with a historical focus. In Part II,… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 4, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! Equities are ticking higher this morning, walking up a wall of worry. Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade friction: A couple of weekends ago, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin declared a ceasefire on trade. It didn’t last very long. Over the weekend, meetings… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 1, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we discussed secular cycles in the Treasury market. This week we will discuss equities. The rule for secular cycles in equities is rather simple: the price/earnings (P/E) is the critical factor. In general, profits tend to rise over time. Driving the secular trend in equity markets is what investors are… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 1, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment day! We cover the data in detail below but the quick snapshot is that the numbers are showing clear and increasing evidence of a tightening labor market. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.8% (out to three digits, it was 3.755%), payrolls exceeded expectations… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 31, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s the last day of May! Markets are mostly steady, the dollar is a bit weaker and Treasuries are seeing a modest bump in yields. Here is what we are watching this morning: Italian populists try to form a government: Italy’s president has given the populists… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 30, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are a bit calmer this morning. Equities are rebounding and Treasury yields are rising. The EUR is also higher. Here is what we are watching: Italy: The populist coalition is trying to revive talks to form a government, perhaps coming up with a less… Read More »