Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Politics and Populism: Part I (July 16, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady The rise of populism and the preference for unconventional leaders are upending the world order that the U.S. created after WWII. Accordingly, across the West, we are seeing a steady rejection of centrist, establishment parties. Here are some of the changes we have observed recently: France: Emmanuel Macron was elected to the presidency… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 16, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! The media is focused on the Trump/Putin meetings in Helsinki but financial markets are mostly ignoring the spectacle. The biggest major market move is in oil, which we discuss below. Here is what we are watching this morning: China GDP: China’s Q2 GDP[1] rose… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 13, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Earnings season is upon us. We normally don’t report on earnings season since we discuss it every day and update the P/E chart weekly, but we are seeing significant growth in earnings which warrants some reflection. The primary reason for the jump in earnings has been the decline in corporate tax rates.… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 13, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity markets are mixed this morning as investors balance expectations of stronger earnings and rising trade tensions. The British pound fell due to political uncertainty and the dollar has strengthened against global currencies. Below are the news stories we are following today: No U.K.-U.S. trade deal?… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 12, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity markets have rebounded following signs that the U.S. and China will likely resume trade negotiations. Oil prices have also stabilized following the bullish EIA report—yesterday oil prices fell 7% following reports that Libya would resume shipments. Below are the stories we are following today: NATO… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 11, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity markets are lower due to concerns of global trade tensions. Below are the issues that we are paying close attention to today: NATO summit: In the opening hours of the NATO summit, President Trump sparked controversy by criticizing Germany’s relationship with Russia and its unwillingness… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 10, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Leadership challenge in the U.K.? Yesterday’s resignations of both Boris Johnson and David Davis have raised concerns of a possible Tory leadership challenge against U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May. Tory Eurosceptics have criticized PM May’s handling of Brexit negotiations for not doing enough to cut… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Return of AMLO (July 9, 2018)
by Thomas Wash On July 1, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or AMLO for short, became Mexico’s first leftist president in over three decades,[1] running on anti-establishment and anti-corruption platforms. The 64-year-old activist won with over 53% of the vote, the most since Mexico moved to a multi-party system. For the first time in nearly a century,… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 9, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! It looks like a risk-on day so far, with Treasury prices lower and equities higher. The dollar is a bit soft which has lifted metals prices. The lack of comment from the White House about trade appears to be helping equity markets. Here is… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 6, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Over the past quarter, emerging market equities have weakened; the primary culprit was a strengthening dollar, although concerns about softer non-U.S. growth likely played a role as well. The dollar’s strength appears to be caused by one of two factors. The first possibility is interest rate differentials, which are partly due to… Read More »