Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 25, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week we discussed the general idea of secular versus cyclical trends. This week we will look at these concepts with regard to longer duration fixed income. The goal of theory is always to simplify. Theorizing is all about taking complex phenomena and reducing it to basic elements that can guide us… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 25, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Here is what we are watching this morning: Capping oil prices: On the eve of the first summer holiday, gasoline prices are becoming an issue. The recent rise in crude oil prices has taken gasoline higher. Although higher gasoline prices are a natural consequence… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 24, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The two big news items are the deterioration of conditions with North Korea and Trump’s call for a 25% tariff on autos. Here is what we are watching: BREAKING NEWS: PRESIDENT TRUMP CANCELS SUMMIT MEETING WITH NORTH KOREA. What’s going on with North Korea? For most… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 23, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s looking a bit ugly out there this morning for risk assets. Equities and most commodities are lower, while gold, Treasuries and the JPY are higher. This is a classic pattern of flight to safety buying. Here is what we are watching: Twin crises: Turkey and… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 22, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are quiet this morning. This is what we are watching this morning: The problem of priorities: There is a stock scene in most action movies where the hero is surrounded by bad guys but, inexplicably, they attack one at a time. The hero fends… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Cyberwar (May 21, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Memorial Day holiday, our next report will be published on June 4.) On Saturday, May 11, the New York Times ran an article on the threat of Iranian cyberattacks.[1] Although the report didn’t necessarily break any new ground, cyberwar does pose some interesting issues for American hegemony. In this report,… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 21, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! There was a lot of weekend news. Let’s dig in: Trade war postponed: Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced that China and the U.S. have postponed any trade actions while talks continue on the structure of the trading relationship. Equity prices rose, the dollar moved… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 18, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee In our asset allocation process, we focus on cyclical trends; that doesn’t mean we pay no attention to secular trends but it isn’t our primary emphasis. The lack of clarity around what these terms mean can lead to confusion. And so, over the next few weeks, we will examine the difference between… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 18, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Financial markets are mostly flat this morning. This is what we are watching: Italy: The FT[1] is reporting that the Five-Star Movement and the League have reached a deal to form a government, although the prime minister post has not been settled. We would… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are quiet this morning. This is what we are watching: More in Italy: Governments are powerful but not omnipotent. When financial markets turn on a country, it can force unwelcome policy changes. The populists in Italy are finding this out the hard way. As… Read More »