Research & News
Daily Comment (December 22, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] (Note to readers: The Daily Comment will go on hiatus next week after today; commentary will resume on January 2, 2018. From all of us at Confluence, thanks for reading! We wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.) The big news was from Europe. … Read More »
Daily Comment (December 21, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] (Note to readers: The Daily Comment will go on hiatus after Friday; commentary will resume on January 2, 2018.) Happy Solstice! Here is what we are watching this morning: Tax bill passes: While there was some last-minute drama, the tax bill passed. We will be… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 20, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] (Note to readers: The Daily Comment will go on hiatus after Friday; commentary will resume on January 2, 2018.) Markets are showing more of the same—U.S. equities are rising and bond yields are also rising. Here is what we are watching this morning: Tax bill… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 19, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] (Note to readers: The Daily Comment will go on hiatus after Friday; commentary will resume on January 2, 2018.) Markets are quiet this morning as investors begin to wind down for the holiday weekend. Here is what we are watching this morning: Tax bill update:… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2018 Geopolitical Outlook (December 18, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady (N.B. This will be the last WGR of 2017. Our next report will be published January 8, 2018.) As is our custom, we close out the current year with our outlook for the next one. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 18, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s a “green” day, with global equity markets mostly higher on the back of a strong Friday rally in the U.S. Here is what we are watching this morning: Tax bill update: The clouds have parted and it looks like passage is likely. Various tweaks were… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (December 15, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady The Market Oil prices have recovered strongly from the mid-summer lows. It appears we are establishing a new trading range between $55 and $60 per barrel. This recovery was mostly caused by a steady decline in U.S. domestic crude oil inventories, a weak dollar and OPEC output discipline. We expect OPEC to… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 15, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, the Federal Reserve released its Financial Accounts of the United States, formerly called the Flow of Funds report. It is a broad set of data that covers many aspects of the economy. Here we present some key charts from the report. This chart shows key private sector debt as a… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 15, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Tax bill update: Although the conference committee has finished its work, it’s going to be something of a nail-biter to passage. Sen. Rubio (R-FL) has indicated he will vote against the current version unless the child tax credit is increased. It is unclear if Sen.… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 14, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Markets are mostly quiet this morning, although there has been a lot of news over the past 24 hours. Here is what we are watching: Central banks: The Fed began the discussion (which we discuss at length below) but the BOE, ECB, PBOC and SNB were… Read More »