Research & News

Daily Comment (May 16, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s mid-week!  Here is what we are watching this morning: A DPRK snag?  Yesterday afternoon, the Kim regime turned hostile, calling off talks with South Korea and threatening to cancel the summit meeting with President Trump.  There is a lot of uncertainty around this sudden change… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 15, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk markets are under some pressure this morning.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Clarida to the Hill: Richard Clarida, Columbia University economist and Global Strategic Advisor for PIMCO, testifies before the Senate Banking Committee on his way to a confirmation vote.  Michelle Bowman,… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Marshall Plan: A Review (May 14, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady We occasionally run across a book that we deem important enough in the arena of geopolitics to warrant a full report dedicated to its review.  Recently, we happened upon a book that fits this requirement, The Marshall Plan: Dawn of the Cold War by Benn Steil.[1]  This book details the history of the… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 14, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday!  Here is what we are watching this morning: ZTE relief? In a surprise announcement, President Trump tweeted that he is seeking some sort of relief for the embattled company.  ZTE (ZTCOF, 2.26, delayed) is under a rather harsh penalty from the Commerce Department for… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (May 11, 2018)

by Asset Allocation Committee Recently, U.S. equities have outperformed emerging market equities. The chart above shows the relative performance of emerging market equities against U.S. equities.  A rising line indicates that foreign equities are outperforming.  Questions are being raised as to whether this recent decline is the end of what has been a strong relative uptrend… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 10, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] BOE meeting: The BOE results were neutral to hawkish.  Rates were left unchanged, as expected, but the vote was 7-2 with the dissenters voting for a hike.  The press conference and the statement were rather dovish, belying the vote.  Markets took the results as moderately… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 9, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There is a lot going on this morning.  Let’s dig in: Iran: As expected, President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the multilateral nuclear agreement with Iran.  Opinions on the move and projections of the decision’s impact vary widely.  We will have more to say on this… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 8, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a quiet morning in a very busy week.  Here is what we are monitoring this morning: The Iran deal: The president will announce his Iran decision at 2:00 (EDT).  Although we expect him to end U.S. participation in the pact, it is unclear what he… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 7, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Today was a relatively slow news morning but here are a few stories we are following: NAFTA negotiations: Today, trade representatives from Mexico, Canada and the United States will meet in Washington to discuss an agreement in principle for NAFTA.  Currently, there appears to… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (May 4, 2018)

by Asset Allocation Committee The continued rise in long-term interest rates, with the 10-year T-note breaking above a 3.00% yield, is becoming the focus of financial markets. Here is our updated 10-year T-note model. The model’s core variables are fed funds and the 15-year moving average of inflation, which we use as a proxy for inflation… Read More »

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