Research & News
Daily Comment (December 13, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s Fed Day! Here is what we are watching this morning: FOMC today: At 2:00, we will get a decision with certainty regarding a 25 bps rate hike. We will also get new dots and forecasts, along with Chair Yellen’s last press conference at 2:30. Usually,… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 12, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Market activity is quiet this morning, but we are monitoring a number of interesting news themes. The Alabama Special: Special elections are being held in Alabama today to replace Jeff Sessions, who left the seat to become Attorney General. Polling has been wildly divergent but the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Moving Fast and Breaking Things: Mohammad bin Salman, Part III (December 11, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this report, we began with a brief background of Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) and discussed the surprise arrests of many leading figures in Saudi society, including several members of the royal family, that occurred the weekend of November 4. In Part II, we examined the forced resignation of Saad… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 11, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was a quiet weekend in front of an active week. Here is what we are watching this morning: NYC bombing: This is a developing incident but early reports suggest a pipe bomb or similar device was detonated near Times Square. According to early reports, there… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 8, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee We have received a number of requests to update our S&P 500/Fed balance sheet model. This chart shows the results from our S&P 500/Fed balance sheet model. We have projected the model’s forecast using the expected path of balance sheet reduction. It shows that the equity index tended to follow monetary policy… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 8, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s employment data day! We detail the data below but the short answer is that the numbers are good for capital—employment rose faster than forecast while wage growth came in weaker than expected. The lack of wage growth should bring some degree of pause on the… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 7, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s another quiet morning, the day before the payroll report. This is what we are watching: Tax update: There’s not too much new to report other than there are rumblings of allowing the corporate rate to drift up by 200 bps. Unfortunately, if negotiators accept a… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 6, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Global equities continue to struggle this morning. Here is what we are watching: Why the struggle in equities? There is a plethora of reasons why equities have started to tread water. The tax bill may fail. If it does pass, we could easily see a bout… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 5, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Equity markets failed to hold yesterday’s tax adjustment gains. We are mostly marking time this morning. Here is what we are watching: Brexit problems: As we noted yesterday, it appeared PM May had resolved the Northern Ireland/Ireland border problem. Her plan was to keep Northern Ireland… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Moving Fast and Breaking Things: Mohammad bin Salman, Part II (December 4, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady Two weeks ago, we introduced this report and covered the mass arrests that took place in Saudi Arabia over the weekend of November 4, when several princes and notable figures were detained. The official reason given for the arrests was corruption, but many have speculated that the move was a cover for Mohammad… Read More »