Research & News
Daily Comment (May 4, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Employment Day! We cover the data in detail below but the quick take is that it was weaker than expected. Although the unemployment rate fell to a new cycle low, it appears to be due to people leaving the workforce. The other major issue is… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 3, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC: Yesterday, the FOMC decided to maintain interest rates. We currently expect three hikes this year, with the next rate increase coming in June. Although the recent core PCE report shows that inflation is only 10 basis points shy of the FOMC, we are… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 2, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Fed rate decision: Today, the Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but rising inflation and steady economic growth has led many to speculate that the Fed could raise rates as early as next month.[1] Presidential subpoena? In early March, Special Counsel Mueller… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 1, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Tariff extensions: Last night, President Trump announced he would extend the deadline for temporary trade tariff exemptions for U.S. allies by an additional 30 days. Earlier this year, citing national security concerns, President Trump placed trade tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum. The president wants… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Generational Change in Cuba? (April 30, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady On April 18, the Cuban National Assembly elected Miguel Diáz-Canel as the new president of Cuba. On the following day, he was sworn into office. There has been much media conversation about a generational shift in Cuba. In this report, we will discuss the potential for change on the island nation, which has… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 30, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! It’s the last day of April (which felt more like early March temperature-wise). Here is what we are watching today: Trade week: There is a lot of trade action scheduled this week. First, the trade delegation is in China this week. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 27, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee In our recent rebalance, the Asset Allocation Committee added a position in gold. There were two reasons behind the decision. First, we estimate that gold prices are undervalued compared to relevant fundamental factors. The chart on the left is our gold valuation model. It uses the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 27, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a busy Friday. Here is what we are watching: Korean leaders meet: In a historic event, the leaders of North and South Korea met and Kim Jong-un became the first DPRK leader to visit the South since the war. The two leaders vowed to work… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] ECB: The statement was dovish. It indicated that balance sheet expansion is scheduled to end in September but actual tapering won’t start anytime soon. Interest rates were left unchanged and forward guidance was generally left unchanged, meaning rates are expected to stay low even after… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 25, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity market weakness continues this morning after a sell-off yesterday. The dollar is rising, boosted by the 10-year T-note definitively breaking 3%. Here is what we are watching this morning: Did Macron save the Iran deal? Probably not. Although it isn’t obvious what “plan B” is… Read More »