Research & News
Daily Comment (June 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning—Happy National Moonshine Day![1] Here is what we are watching this morning: Oil and OPEC: The Trump administration has quietly asked OPEC[2] to boost oil output by 1.0 mbpd in a bid to lower oil prices and, as a result, gasoline prices. Undoubtedly we will… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – China’s Foreign Reserves: Part I (June 4, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady We often get questions about China’s foreign reserves. The fear is that China’s massive “pile” of foreign exchange reserves is a risk factor for U.S. markets. In the first part of this report, we will discuss the evolution of foreign reserves from gold to the dollar, with a historical focus. In Part II,… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 4, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! Equities are ticking higher this morning, walking up a wall of worry. Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade friction: A couple of weekends ago, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin declared a ceasefire on trade. It didn’t last very long. Over the weekend, meetings… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 1, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we discussed secular cycles in the Treasury market. This week we will discuss equities. The rule for secular cycles in equities is rather simple: the price/earnings (P/E) is the critical factor. In general, profits tend to rise over time. Driving the secular trend in equity markets is what investors are… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 1, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment day! We cover the data in detail below but the quick snapshot is that the numbers are showing clear and increasing evidence of a tightening labor market. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.8% (out to three digits, it was 3.755%), payrolls exceeded expectations… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 31, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s the last day of May! Markets are mostly steady, the dollar is a bit weaker and Treasuries are seeing a modest bump in yields. Here is what we are watching this morning: Italian populists try to form a government: Italy’s president has given the populists… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 30, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are a bit calmer this morning. Equities are rebounding and Treasury yields are rising. The EUR is also higher. Here is what we are watching: Italy: The populist coalition is trying to revive talks to form a government, perhaps coming up with a less… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 29, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s clearly another “risk off” morning—equities are lower around the world, the dollar, yen and Treasury prices are up, and most other currencies are lower. Europe is the culprit. Here is the story: The Italian job: Over the Memorial Day weekend, Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella, refused… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 25, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week we discussed the general idea of secular versus cyclical trends. This week we will look at these concepts with regard to longer duration fixed income. The goal of theory is always to simplify. Theorizing is all about taking complex phenomena and reducing it to basic elements that can guide us… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 25, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Here is what we are watching this morning: Capping oil prices: On the eve of the first summer holiday, gasoline prices are becoming an issue. The recent rise in crude oil prices has taken gasoline higher. Although higher gasoline prices are a natural consequence… Read More »