Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Globalization: Part II (April 16, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we introduced this topic by discussing the Cold War. This week, we will continue our analysis with a reflection on markets, an examination of hegemony and a discussion of the expansion of globalization and the rise of meritocracy and its discontents. What about Markets? Market economics is based on how humans… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 16, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s relief Monday! There was an attack on Syria but it was quite limited. Equities have moved higher, Treasury yields have lifted, oil prices have dipped and the dollar is lower. This is what we are watching this morning: Parsing Syria: Late Friday, the U.S., U.K.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 13, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee One of the great unknowns in this recovery and expansion is the proper measure of economic slack. Although it’s a term that is rather easy to understand in the abstract, actually defining it is difficult. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) produces an estimate of potential GDP but it is, at best, a… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 13, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equities are rising this morning as earnings season begins. As our numbers above indicate, earnings are expected to be robust and the releases this morning confirm that outlook. Here is what we are watching: Return to TPP? All presidents learn on the job; there really… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 12, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a fairly quiet overnight session; the dollar reversed some of yesterday’s losses and equities are modestly higher. This is what we are watching: Ryan’s departure: Soon after last November’s elections, we framed the forthcoming political battle as “Ryan vs. Bannon.” Now, both are gone. … Read More »
Daily Comment (April 11, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s risk-off today; risk markets are lower on a swirl of issues that are weighing on sentiment. Here is what we are watching: Action on Syria: The president tweeted this morning, warning Syria and Russia that the U.S. is preparing an attack on Syria for its… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 10, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk-on is the order of the day. Here’s what’s driving it: Xi talks: Chairman Xi spoke at the Boao Forum yesterday evening and made promises to open China’s market to foreign investment and lower export impediments. He indicated that auto tariffs will be lowered. The tone… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Globalization: Part I (April 9, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady For much of recorded human history, we have seen waves of globalization and deglobalization.[1] Periods of globalization tend to be characterized by the emergence of either large regional hegemons or global hegemons. When these hegemons see their power wane, deglobalization occurs. Recently, globalization has come under fire. In some circles, being called a… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 9, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There is a whiff of “risk-on” this morning, with global equities higher while “risk-off” assets, such as gold and Treasuries, are lower. Presidential tweets were relatively calm over the weekend. Here is what we are watching this morning: Social media to Capitol Hill: Facebook (FB, 157.20)… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 6, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Recently, the three-month T-bill/Eurodollar spread (TED spread) has widened, raising concerns about financial stability. In this report, we will offer a primer on the spread and discuss its recent rise. The TED spread has two components; it’s a direction-of-rate spread and a flight-to-quality spread. Eurodollars (also known as LIBOR) represent dollar borrowing… Read More »