Research & News
Daily Comment (November 10, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] We are seeing further equity weakness this morning; interestingly, too, Treasury yields are rising. The asset market weakness doesn’t appear to have a single cause, but rather a mix of factors has weakened investor sentiment. Here is what we are watching: Who knew tax reform would… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] We are seeing some equity weakness this morning. There isn’t anything specific weighing on the market other than what looks like profit taking. Here’s the news we are watching this morning: President Trump in China: The president received $250 bn in trade deals and promised investments. … Read More »
Daily Comment (November 8, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There was a good bit of news overnight. Here is what we are watching: The message from the voters: Governor and downstate elections were held in Virginia and New Jersey yesterday. Although small sample size projections are the lifeblood of political punditry, we see three legitimate… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 7, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The overnight news was less active than the weekend but there’s still a lot going on. Here’s what we are watching: Saudi Arabia: We see two items of note this morning. First, the king has ordered banks to freeze the accounts of numerous Saudi nationals who… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Situation in Catalonia: Part I (November 6, 2017)
by Thomas Wash On October 27, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy triggered Article 155 of Spain’s constitution. This allowed him to dissolve the Catalan Parliament, also known as the Generalitat, and hold new regional elections on December 21, 2017. Tensions between the Catalan government and the Spanish government reached a boiling point following the Catalan government’s… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 6, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Oh my, it was a very busy weekend for news. Let’s dig in. Saudi Arabia: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) was a hub of activity. There were a few items of note. It appears that Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MbS) has engineered a massive… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 3, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee The 10-year Treasury yield has recently been trending upward. Since early September, yields have risen from 2.06% to 2.46%. What’s behind this rise and do we expect it to continue? We use our 10-year T-note model for guidance. It estimates the fair value level of the 10-year T-note yield based on the… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 3, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment data day! We cover the release in detail below but the quick read is that the report is relatively weak; payrolls rebounded sharply but below expectations, the unemployment rate fell largely due to a drop in the labor force and wages remained unchanged. Weather… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 2, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The overnight news was relatively light, but here are the events we’re keeping an eye on today: Changes at the Fed: Yesterday, the FOMC decided to maintain interest rates at their current levels but hinted at a possible rate increase in December. The Federal Reserve cited… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 1, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity markets have been fairly strong following relatively strong earnings and expectations surrounding the FOMC meeting today. The overnight news was relatively light, but below are a few topics that we are keeping an eye on today: Return of the ban? Yesterday, a driver in a… Read More »