Research & News
Daily Comment (October 31, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Halloween! Financial and commodity markets are quiet this morning, awaiting the president’s pick for Fed chair (Powell is the consensus selection), the president’s trip to Asia and Friday’s employment report. Here is what we are watching this morning: The indictments: Although the indictments dominated the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – North Korea and China: A Difficult History, Part III (October 30, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I of our report, we reviewed the Minsaengdan Incident and a broad examination of the Korean War. In Part II, we completed our analysis of the war, discussed the Kim regime’s autarkic policy of Juche and outlined the impact of the Cultural Revolution on North Korean/Chinese relations. This week, Part III… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 30, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a heavy weekend of news. Let’s dig in: Manafort, Gates indicted: Paul Manafort and his former business associate, Rick Gates, were indicted this morning and told to surrender to the FBI. Latest reports indicate that Manafort and his former partner will face charges related… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 27, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee It is expected that over the next two weeks President Trump is going to appoint a new Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) chair and vice chair. In this report, we will build scenarios of how policy could change depending upon whom the president appoints. This spreadsheet details our estimate of policy… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 27, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As we detail below, Q3 GDP came in stronger than forecast. And, yesterday’s spate of tech company earnings were quite solid. Equities and the dollar continue to rally and interest rates are grinding higher. Here is what we are watching: A budget passes the House: As… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 26, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a news-heavy morning. Here is what we are tracking: Yellen out? Politico is reporting that the president has narrowed the field for Fed chair, eliminating Gary Cohn yesterday and also Yellen. Although the source from Politico, Ben White, is generally reliable, in the same report,… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 25, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are a bit weaker this morning—equities are signaling a softer opening while Treasuries are continuing to take on water. There is a lot going on; this morning we are focused on the following issues. Xi sets Standing Committee: The new Standing Committee of the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2017)
Our inflation outlook remains benign and economic data continues to be modestly positive. We do not anticipate a recession in the near term. Though the composition of the Fed will change over the next four months, we expect policy to continue toward tightening through increases in the fed funds rate and a reduction in the… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 24, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Here is a recap of what we are watching this morning: Xi elevated: Although the news is rather obscure to Western eyes, “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” was added to the Chinese constitution today. Such thoughts, such as Jiang Zemin’s… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – North Korea and China: A Difficult History, Part II (October 23, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we examined the Minsaengdan Incident and the onset of the Korean War. This week, we will discuss the final phase of the Korean War, the ceasefire, the introduction of Juche and the impact of the Cultural Revolution. The Korean War: The Latter Stages of the War and the Ceasefire Among the… Read More »