Research & News
Daily Comment (March 15, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s the Ides of March! Be careful out there. Markets were very quiet overnight. Here is what we are watching: Trump 2.0: As expected, Larry Kudlow is replacing Gary Cohn as NEC director. This should be a somewhat market supportive appointment. Kudlow isn’t an economic heavyweight;… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 14, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Here is what we are watching this morning: May responds: The Russians ignored Britain’s deadline so PM May is expelling 23 Russian diplomats, the biggest expulsion since the Cold War. Expect a similar response from Russia. This is an issue that bears watching. We expect that… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (March 13, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady The Market Over the past quarter, oil prices have ranged from a low of around $56 to a high of $66 per barrel. Prices remain elevated, supported by OPEC production discipline and solid global oil demand. Prices and Inventories Inventory levels remain elevated but have clearly declined from last year’s peak. View… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 13, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] CPI came in on forecast. Financial markets were fearing faster inflation and so we are seeing the dollar ease and equities rally on the news. Here is what we are watching this morning: NEC Chair: Shahira Knight has signaled she doesn’t want the job, and Chris… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Emperor Xi: Part II (March 12, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we discussed China’s power structure and how the suspension of term limits changes recent precedents. We examined President Xi’s actions in his first term to consolidate power and prepare for the next phase in China’s adjustment. We concluded with the reasons for moving now and what it potentially signals about Xi’s… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 12, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! We switched to daylight savings time on Sunday (a rather barbaric practice). Here is what we are watching this morning: Scrambling on Korea talks: Weekend reporting made it clear that the president agreed to talks on his own without consulting staff. The normal protocol… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 9, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last year, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor in gauging market conditions. The indicator is constructed with commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence. The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 9, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s employment data Friday! We detail the data below but the quick summary is “shocking.” Wage growth moderated and payrolls came in stronger than expected. In the household survey, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% but that masked massive increases in employment and the labor force. … Read More »
Daily Comment (March 8, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] After a torrent of news this week, it’s comparatively quiet this morning. Here is what we are watching: ECB: The ECB meets today and the statement contained a surprise—the central bank has dropped its pledge to expand QE if needed. This announcement signals the beginning of… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 7, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There is much to discuss this morning. Let’s get to it: Cohn out: Gary Cohn, Director of the National Economic Council, resigned yesterday evening. Although reports suggest he has been considering the move for a couple of months, the proximate cause was the inability to turn… Read More »