Research & News
Daily Comment (March 6, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Risk markets are higher this morning, building on yesterday’s afternoon recovery. Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade wars—the establishment strikes back: They don’t call it the establishment for nothing. The GOP establishment playbook—tax cuts, open trade, deregulation—has always been a less than perfect… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Emperor Xi: Part I (March 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady On February 25th, the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) announced that it would recommend an end to term limits on the offices of president and vice president. Previously, an officeholder was limited to two five-year terms. We fully expect the recommendation to be approved (recommendations from the Central Committee are… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Monday! Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade wars: As details emerge on how the president decided to recommend across-the-board tariffs on steel and aluminum, it has become clear it was more of a reaction than a well-thought-out plan. There is no actual… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 2, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee The recent rise in long-duration yields has been partially blamed on rising inflation expectations. Although this reason is a possible explanation, the reality is that it’s more likely the fixed income markets are simply adjusting to a faster pace of policy tightening. In this report, we examine the differences between cyclical and… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 2, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There is a lot going on this morning. Let’s dive in: Trade wars: President Trump campaigned as a trade warrior, promising tariffs and government intervention to boost manufacturing employment and give hope to his electoral base. However, in his first year of office, if one ignores… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 1, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Risk assets are coming under pressure this morning as equities struggle. Here is what we are watching today: Powell, Part 2: Chair Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee today. Usually, the second testimony is not closely watched; after all, we have already seen the formal… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 28, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Looking for something to read? In our travels we are often asked about books we recommend. As a result, we have created The Reading List. The list is a group of books, separated by category, that we believe are interesting and insightful. Each book on… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 27, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Looking for something to read? In our travels we are often asked about books we recommend. As a result, we have created The Reading List. The list is a group of books, separated by category, that we believe are interesting and insightful. Each book on… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Italian Elections: Part II (February 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this report we outlined the geopolitics of Italy and its political economy. This week, we continue the report with an analysis of the upcoming elections and Germany’s impact on the EU, concluding with potential market ramifications. The Election There are four major parties in Italy. Below we detail each… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Looking for something to read? In our travels we are often asked about books we recommend. As a result, we have created The Reading List. The list is a group of books, separated by category, that we believe are interesting and insightful. Each book on… Read More »