Research & News
Daily Comment (October 12, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Fed minutes: The Fed minutes didn’t have a lot of surprises; we would characterize them as modestly dovish. Going off the terms used, “several” members were uncertain about inflation and wanted more data to improve their confidence, while “a few” believed that additional increases should… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2017)
Letter to Investors In my last letter I wrote of the tendency of investors to think of the economy and the markets as linear phenomena, rather than cyclical phenomena. In other words, an inclination to think that a good economy will continue its upward path forever unless some villain intercedes and causes a recession. However,… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 11, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although overall market activity is quiet this morning, there is a good bit of news. Here is what we are watching this morning: Catalonia blinks—Rajoy presses: Yesterday, Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont declared and suspended independence, asking for talks with Madrid. PM Rajoy is having none of… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 10, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although it was mostly quiet overnight, we are awaiting a potential declaration of independence from Catalonia. Here is what we are tracking this morning: A declaration of independence? Catalan Leader Carles Puigdemont is expected to address the regional parliament in Barcelona at 11:00 EDT amid growing… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Four Horsemen of Leveling: A Book Review (October 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady Occasionally, we find a book that has such an interesting message that we dedicate a Weekly Geopolitical Report to reviewing it. This week, we will look at The Great Leveler by Walter Scheidel.[1] The book is an extensive historical analysis of inequality and the factors that reduce it. In this report, we will… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a slow news morning. Columbus Day is being celebrated, which means the Federal Government and Treasury market are closed. Equities are open. Here is what we are tracking this morning. A Turkish spat: Turkish financial markets have been roiled this morning after both the U.S.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 6, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee The latest FOMC meeting and subsequent comments from Chair Yellen have increased the likelihood of a December rate hike. This chart shows the implied likelihood of a rate hike compared to steady policy from fed funds futures for the December meeting. In early December, the projected odds of a hike were just… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 6, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment data day! We cover the release in detail below but the quick view is the report is mixed; payrolls actually declined but the unemployment rate did, too. The data was affected by weather events. The dollar rose on the news and Treasury yields rose… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 5, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are very quiet again this morning in front of the employment data on Friday. Here is what we are watching: PM May’s no good, very bad day: With compliments to Judith Viorst,[1] the Tory PM has had a really rough run recently. She was… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 4, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are very quiet again this morning in front of the employment data on Friday. Here is what we are watching this morning: Fed chair decision: President Trump has distilled a short list for replacing (or, perhaps, reappointing) the position of Fed chair. Below is… Read More »