Research & News
Daily Comment (February 2, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy employment day! We cover the data in detail below but the initial read is that it’s a blowout. Payrolls rose sharply, better than forecast, and wage growth accelerated (although not for all workers). Financial markets are not taking it well; it’s another “red day” where… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 1, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The FOMC: The FOMC did what we expected; it held rates steady but prepared the market for new rate hikes. We currently expect three hikes this year but, given the overall hawkishness of the 2018 voters, we cannot rule out four hikes, especially if the… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 31, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Equities are back in the green this morning. The dollar is also in retreat. Here is what we are watching today: The FOMC: The last FOMC meeting chaired by Janet Yellen concludes today. We don’t expect a rate change or anything in the statement that will… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 30, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s another red day. Treasury prices have turned lower, equity futures are falling for the second straight day and oil is also lower. Gold and foreign currencies are higher. Here is what we are watching: A medical shakeup: Amazon (AMZN, 1417.68), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK, 323,500) and… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thinking the Unthinkable (Again): Part II (January 29, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we published the first part[1] of this report looking at how the U.S. and other nations are changing their policies toward nuclear weapons. This is something of a refresh of a report we did seven years ago.[2] Since we published this earlier report, we have seen an increase in actual and… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 29, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s a “red day” as we are mostly seeing trend reversals across many markets—equity futures are pointing to a rare lower opening, Treasury yields have broken 2.70%, foreign exchange is weaker (dollar stronger) and gold is lower. Some of this looks like profit taking, although the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 26, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Equity markets have been steadily rising, with the major indices making a series of new all-time highs. The recent impetus to equities has been the tax law. As we detailed in our recent addendum to our 2018 Outlook,[1] the tax bill will shift about 1.3% of GDP to after-tax corporate profits. This… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Friday! President Trump just ended his speech in Davos and GDP came in soft. Here is what we are watching this morning: Trump’s speech in Davos: The speech can best be described as “selling America” as a place to invest. As we discussed yesterday, if… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 25, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The president arrived in Davos this morning and will give the keynote speech tomorrow, and the ECB met today. Here is what we are watching: The ECB: The ECB made no monetary policy changes, as expected. In his press conference, ECB President Draghi didn’t veer from… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 24, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The big market mover this morning is the dollar. Here is what we are watching: Treasury shift? During the 1980s into the 1990s, U.S. Treasury secretaries frequently tried to move the currency markets. James Baker was part of the Paris Accord in 1985 that led to… Read More »