Research & News
Daily Comment (September 1, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Employment Day! We recap the numbers below. Here is what we are watching today: Q3 GDP looking strong: Q2 GDP was revised to 3.0%, and the Atlanta FRB is projecting a 3.3% growth rate for Q3. We present the relevant charts below. The estimated growth… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 31, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s the last day of August. Here is what we are watching today: Russian bank problem: Otkritie is a bank in Russia that has become insolvent. The bank has close ties to the government and has apparently enjoyed rapid growth by absorbing the assets of smaller… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 30, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy GDP day! We cover the GDP data below, but the report showed 3.0% annualized growth. Interest rates have ticked higher and the dollar is recovering from yesterday’s weakness. Here is what we are following this morning: Harvey hits Louisiana: After slamming Texas with massive rains,… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 29, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are in “risk on” mode this morning after the North Korean missile test. Treasuries and gold are higher, while equities and the dollar are weaker. In fact, the EUR broke above the 1.200 level for the first time in two years. Here is what… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Nationalism: Part II (August 28, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Labor Day holiday, the next report will be published on September 11.) Last week, we began our series on nationalism. In Part I of this report, we discussed social contract theory before and after the Enlightenment. We examined three social contract theorists, Thomas Hobbes, John Locke and Jean-Jacques Rousseau. This… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 28, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a busy weekend of news. Our thoughts and prayers go out to our friends in Texas. Here’s what we are watching: Harvey: TS Harvey made landfall going into the weekend as a category 4 hurricane. Usually, hurricanes make landfall, move inland and dissipate within… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 25, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee When President Trump was elected, there were expectations that fiscal policy would become more stimulative, which would lead to faster growth, tighter monetary policy and dollar strength. There were also promises of regulatory relief. In November, soon after the election, financial markets, exercising their usual pattern of discounting the future, immediately began… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 25, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] South Korean war games: Pyongyang has repeated its threats of retaliation in response to the South Korean war games, contending that the drills act as a precursor to the imminent invasion of North Korea. Pyongyang reportedly threatened that the U.K. would face a “miserable end” if… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 24, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Iran strikes back: Saudi Arabia’s plan to isolate Iran may have backfired. The WSJ reports that Qatar has decided to restore diplomatic and bilateral trade ties with Iran despite pressure from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a coalition of Arab countries that also includes the United… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 23, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Trump attacks Washington and the media: President Trump made his first major speech on immigration yesterday in Phoenix, Arizona, during which he placated his base by threatening to shut down the government if the border wall isn’t funded, alluding to a withdrawal from NAFTA and attacking… Read More »