Research & News
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2018)
The passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 significantly increased our earnings forecast for the S&P 500 for 2018 from $129.82 to $144.84. We do not expect major changes to economic growth stemming from the tax legislation. Fed policy should continue to tighten through increases in the fed funds rate and a… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 23, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] After all the news from yesterday, markets are fairly quiet this morning. This is what we are watching today: The shutdown ends: And it ends with mostly a whimper. Democrat Party leaders essentially ended the shutdown with a promise for a vote on DACA and an… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thinking the Unthinkable (Again): Part I (January 22, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Seven years ago we published a WGR on nuclear war and civil defense.[1] Over the past seven years, we have seen an increase in actual and potential nuclear proliferation. Both the Obama and Trump administrations have either reviewed or are reviewing their policies on nuclear weapons and we are clearly seeing a departure… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 22, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The media is focused on the government shutdown but, if the markets are a guide, there isn’t much to see. This is what we are watching this morning: BREAKING: The IMF has boosted its estimate for global GDP to 3.9%, up 0.2%, in part due to… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 19, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Since the beginning of the year, long-term interest rates have moved higher. The constant maturity 10-year Treasury yield ended 2017 at 2.40%. That yield climbed to 2.60% in January, which is above our recently released 2018 Outlook forecast. We are not adjusting our forecast quite yet because the driving factor behind our… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 19, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] We are seeing continued strength in equities this morning and a modest decline in Treasuries. Here are some things worth noting today: Shutdown looming: Although a continuing resolution passed the House rather easily, it looks like a long shot for the Senate to pass a similar… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 18, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] We are seeing a modest retreat in equities this morning after a major rally yesterday. The dollar is weakening after rising yesterday as well. Here are some things worth noting this morning: China’s GDP: Although a highly manipulated number, last year’s GDP rose 6.9%, a bit… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Financial markets were mostly quiet overnight. Yesterday turned out to be a rare down day for equities but futures are signaling a higher opening this morning. Treasury yields are modestly higher. Here is what we are watching this morning: A continuing resolution: Congressional leaders are likely… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (January 2018)
Letter to Investors Welcome to 2018! The stock and bond markets did much better in 2017 than most participants expected, by my reckoning. This has led to an unusually large proportion of the forecasts for this year predicting dire outcomes, also by my reckoning. Predicting the future is impossible, of course, but that doesn’t stop… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 16, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Welcome back from the long weekend! In a sense, not much has changed—equity markets continue to move higher. Here are the news items of note: Germany’s political turmoil continues: The EUR has dipped this morning, a pause in a torrid appreciation, as two items are raising… Read More »