Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 12, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we issued an addendum to our 2018 Outlook[1] to take into account the recent tax law changes. Our top-down analysis suggests there will be a significant increase in corporate earnings which will translate into higher S&P 500 earnings. Our original forecast was for $129.82[2] for 2018; we have increased our… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 12, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Coalition deal in Germany: This morning, Chancellor Merkel announced that an agreement has been reached to form a conservative coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD). This agreement will likely pave the way for Merkel to finally form a new government after months of negotiations following… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 11, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Chinese pullback in Treasuries: Yesterday, citing an anonymous source, Bloomberg News reported that China is considering reducing or halting its purchases of U.S. Treasuries; China has since denounced the report as “fake news.” Initially, U.S. Treasuries, the dollar and U.S. equities fell on the news,… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 10, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The problem with bonds: Bond yields jumped yesterday with the 10-year T-note yield breaching 2.55%, breaking 2.50% for the first time since March. There appear to be two catalysts behind the jump. First, the BOJ reduced its purchases of bonds; it should be remembered that… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 9, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Crypto problems: The major cryptocurrencies fell sharply yesterday after wide price divergences on South Korean exchanges led the exchanges to limit data on pricing. South Korea, worried about excessive speculation in the cryptocurrencies, has been cracking down recently which is leading to growing concern about… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Iranian Protests (January 8, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady (N.B. Due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day, our next report will be published January 22, 2018.) In early December, small protests developed in parts of Iran due to sharp increases in some food prices. By the last week of 2017, the protests had spread across the country and have continued into the… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 8, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Monday! We may be on a path to the first down day of the year for equities, although it is obviously early. Here is what we are noting this morning: Abandoning the Palestinians: We have always believed that the Palestinian cause was more for show… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 5, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Equity markets had a very strong 2017, with the S&P 500 up over 20% for the year. Earnings rose more than expected, the economy continued to expand and investor sentiment was buoyant, all of which contributed to rising equities. The tax bill, signed in late December, will give equities a lift going… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy employment day! We show all the details below but the quick analysis is that the report was a bit soft; payrolls came in below forecast and wage growth remains tepid. The report was dollar bearish, Treasury bullish and neutral for equities. Here is what we… Read More »
2018 Outlook: Addendum (January 4, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Summary: When we wrote our 2018 Outlook, we were unable to take into account the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017[1] because the legislation had not been signed by the time we published our report. This Addendum will address the impact of the tax bill on… Read More »