Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 9, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee The continued rise in long-term interest rates is clearly grabbing the attention of financial markets. Stronger than expected wage growth was the proximate cause of the recent lift in yields. Although overall wages rose 2.9%, wages for production and non-supervisory workers grew only 2.4%. Still, it is clear that fears of inflation… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 9, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Looking for something to read? In our travels we are often asked about books we recommend. As a result, we have created The Reading List. The list is a group of books, separated by category, that we believe are interesting and insightful. Each book on… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 8, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Looking for something to read? In our travels we are often asked about books we recommend. As a result, we have created The Reading List. The list is a group of books, separated by category, that we believe are interesting and insightful. Each book on… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 7, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Looking for something to read? In our travels we are often asked about books we recommend. As a result, we have created The Reading List. The list is a group of books, separated by category, that we believe are interesting and insightful. Each book on… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 6, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Equities remain under pressure around the world. We are seeing lots of swings in other markets, with Treasuries flipping from higher to lower prices and the dollar is volatile as well. Here is what we are watching: Algos and risk parity: Innovation is always a factor… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Trump & Trade: The First Year (February 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady President Trump has been in office for just over one year, having been inaugurated on January 20, 2017. He campaigned on a populist agenda—anti-globalism was a core message. Specifically, his “America First” mantra railed against free trade deals, suggesting they were poorly negotiated, supported immigration restrictions and called on allies to shoulder more… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s another down day for the broad swath of financial markets. We are seeing weakness in equities; bonds have started to stabilize but we are seeing a rapid steepening of the yield curve. Market action has been mostly controlled with little evidence of panic…so far. Here… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 2, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee The World Economic Forum in Davos was held recently and various comments were made about the dollar during the meetings. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin seemed to imply that the administration was talking the dollar lower, a violation of unwritten protocols that make it acceptable to have a weaker currency in support of growth… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 2, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy employment day! We cover the data in detail below but the initial read is that it’s a blowout. Payrolls rose sharply, better than forecast, and wage growth accelerated (although not for all workers). Financial markets are not taking it well; it’s another “red day” where… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 1, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The FOMC: The FOMC did what we expected; it held rates steady but prepared the market for new rate hikes. We currently expect three hikes this year but, given the overall hawkishness of the 2018 voters, we cannot rule out four hikes, especially if the… Read More »