Research & News
Daily Comment (August 1, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are higher this morning on the second day of Gen. Kelly’s tour as Chief of Staff (CoS). Here are the news items we are watching: The “Mooch” is out: Anthony Scaramucci left his role as communications director. It isn’t completely clear if he… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – A Coup in Riyadh (July 31, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady On June 20th, King Salman of Saudi Arabia announced that his son, Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS, as he is affectionately known), would be the new crown prince, replacing Prince Mohammed bin Nayef. Although the move was momentous, it was not necessarily unexpected. MbS’s stature in the kingdom had been rising since he… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 31, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy St. Ignatius of Loyola Day! The weekend was news heavy—here’s what we are watching this morning. A new Chief of Staff: Reince Priebus was removed from the Chief of Staff position at the White House late Friday. Although it does appear he resigned the day… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 28, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee As the S&P 500 steadily rises to new highs, concerns about a correction will likely increase. Since 1987, major market pullbacks have been associated with recessions and there isn’t much evidence to suggest the business cycle is set to turn. In the absence of a recession, we tend to look for factors… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 28, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Unlike the past few days, there was a lot of news overnight. Here’s what happened: The Senate fails to “repeal and replace”: In the wee small hours of the morning,[1] three GOP senators joined the full contingent of Democrats to kill any chance of ending the… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (July 2017)
Letter to Investors It’s terribly hot here in the Midwest. It wouldn’t be a normal Missouri summer if it didn’t touch 100 degrees for a week or two. As uncomfortable as it is, what makes it tolerable is the knowledge that in a couple of months the brutal heat will have left us and a… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 27, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing stronger equities, weaker bond prices and a stable dollar this morning. Here’s the news we are following: The FOMC: The Fed statement didn’t offer too many surprises. It did admit that inflation is running below target but didn’t elaborate about the future path… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 26, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good Wednesday morning! It’s Fed day. Other than that, we continue to see the major U.S. equity indices quietly make new highs. Good earnings and nothing earthshattering coming from Washington are playing a role in lifting equity values. Here are the news items of interest today.… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 25, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s another quiet summer trading day. Here are the items making news: The FOMC meeting begins later today: The Fed has created a problem for itself. The U.S. central bank meets every six weeks (or eight times per year), but because it makes four meetings out… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – A Productivity Boom: A Response to Robert Gordon, Part II (July 24, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we began an analysis of Michael Mandel and Bret Swanson’s paper[1] which is a response to Robert Gordon’s argument that the West is doomed to a prolonged period of slow productivity growth. In Part I of this report, we examined the productivity issue and discussed Mandel and Swanson’s analysis of the… Read More »