Research & News
Daily Comment (November 14, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was a very quiet overnight session. Better Eurozone growth has lifted the EUR, while global equity markets continue to struggle in what looks to us like profit taking. PPI (see below) did come in higher than forecast; shorter duration Treasury yields rose. Here is what… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Situation in Catalonia: Part II (November 13, 2017)
by Thomas Wash In Part I of our report, we examined the historical background of the Catalan independence movement. This week, we will continue our discussion by summarizing the constitutional crisis, identifying the significant players and their motives, noting the possible outcomes and concluding with market ramifications. Constitutional Crisis: A Summary In addition to the historical… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 13, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Monday! Here are the news items we are watching this morning: The president’s trip to Asia comes to a close: The president stayed mostly on script for the early part of his trip but began to stray toward the end. We suspect historians will look… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 10, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we discussed our views of the debt markets. However, one item we didn’t examine was the dynamics of the yield curve. The U.S. Treasury market has both a domestic and an international component. While all sovereign debt markets have a domestic component, the international component is especially a factor for… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 10, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] We are seeing further equity weakness this morning; interestingly, too, Treasury yields are rising. The asset market weakness doesn’t appear to have a single cause, but rather a mix of factors has weakened investor sentiment. Here is what we are watching: Who knew tax reform would… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] We are seeing some equity weakness this morning. There isn’t anything specific weighing on the market other than what looks like profit taking. Here’s the news we are watching this morning: President Trump in China: The president received $250 bn in trade deals and promised investments. … Read More »
Daily Comment (November 8, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There was a good bit of news overnight. Here is what we are watching: The message from the voters: Governor and downstate elections were held in Virginia and New Jersey yesterday. Although small sample size projections are the lifeblood of political punditry, we see three legitimate… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 7, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The overnight news was less active than the weekend but there’s still a lot going on. Here’s what we are watching: Saudi Arabia: We see two items of note this morning. First, the king has ordered banks to freeze the accounts of numerous Saudi nationals who… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Situation in Catalonia: Part I (November 6, 2017)
by Thomas Wash On October 27, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy triggered Article 155 of Spain’s constitution. This allowed him to dissolve the Catalan Parliament, also known as the Generalitat, and hold new regional elections on December 21, 2017. Tensions between the Catalan government and the Spanish government reached a boiling point following the Catalan government’s… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 6, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Oh my, it was a very busy weekend for news. Let’s dig in. Saudi Arabia: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) was a hub of activity. There were a few items of note. It appears that Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MbS) has engineered a massive… Read More »