Research & News
Daily Comment (July 5, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Back to work! Here are the items we are following this morning: North Korea’s ICBM: Over the holiday, North Korea launched an ICBM that is at least capable of reaching Hawaii and Alaska and could hit much of Asia, along with northern Australia. Although there is… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 30, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee For equity investors, there is always a concern about the major market declines; being able to reduce market exposure prior to crashes like the ones in 2000 or 2008 is always desirable. Although large declines have occurred outside of economic recessions, they have become increasingly rare. The last major market pullback absent… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 30, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] N.B. Due to the upcoming Independence Day holiday, the next issue of the Daily Comment will be published on July 5th. We want to wish you a happy and safe holiday! We expect a quiet trade today; it’s a summer Friday, there’s a holiday… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 29, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Here are some of the items we are tracking this morning: Fed stress tests give banks a green light: The banks performed well on the Federal Reserve stress tests, opening the sector to increasing dividends and stock buybacks. Bank stocks lifted the broader indices… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 28, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There was quite a bit of news from yesterday through this morning: ECB tells market “you misunderstand”: Yesterday, ECB President Draghi gave a speech that was taken to suggest that tapering was going to occur because the Eurozone economy is doing better. The EUR… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 27, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] BREAKING NEWS: THE IMF HAS LOWERED U.S. GDP GROWTH FORECASTS FOR 2017-18. GROWTH FOR 2017 WAS CUT TO 2.1% FROM 2.3%. FOR 2018, THE FORECAST FALLS TO 2.1% FROM 2.5%. LACK OF FISCAL SPENDING ON INFRASTRUCTURE AND LACK OF TAX REFORM WERE CITED. Here… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Second Korean War: Part II (June 26, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady (N.B. Due to the Independence Day holiday, our next report will be published on July 10th. That edition will be our Mid-Year Geopolitical Update.) Last week, we offered background on the situation with North Korea. We presented a short history of the Korean War with a concentration on the lessons learned by the… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 26, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Here’s a recap of the weekend news: Italy bails out two banks: Veneto Banca and Banca Popolare di Vicenza were declared failed by the ECB on Friday. Over the weekend, the Italian government bailed out the banks, shielding senior bondholders from losses. EU rules… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 23, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee The FOMC did raise rates at the June meeting, which was fully expected. The dots chart suggested that we would see one more hike this year and three next year. In addition, the central bank gave some indication of how it would shrink its balance sheet. Although the statement didn’t signal when… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 23, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] News flow overnight was rather slow. This is typical of summer. The Senate is working on its version of health care and, no surprise, is dealing with the same problems the House faced—to make the bill palatable to moderates, it fails to garner votes… Read More »