Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – South Korea’s Too Big to Fail (June 12, 2017)
by Thomas K. Wash On March 10, Park Geun-hye was removed from her position as president of South Korea. Her ouster came on the heels of a scandal involving her close confidant who is accused of seeking bribes from chaebols, a group of family-owned multinational conglomerates that dominate the South Korean economy, to curry favor with… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 12, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The global political situation remains fluid. In France, President Macron won an apparent smashing victory in the first round of parliamentary elections, winning nearly 32% of the vote and faring much better than the conservative parties, which captured around 20%. The National Front picked… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 9, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee We have been monitoring the S&P 500 performance relative to new GOP administrations. Based on the historical pattern, the market has reached the average peak level a few weeks early. This chart shows the performance of the S&P 500 on a weekly close basis, indexed to the first Friday of the first… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] In Britain, Theresa May’s decision to call a snap election in order to win a larger mandate backfired last night. The Tories, who were supposed to win more seats, lost their majority and barely squeaked out a plurality. Final results show that the Tories… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 8, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Welcome to Super Thursday! Today, there is a slew of geopolitical events that may have an impact on global markets. In Europe, the ECB will hold a press conference about current and future policy decisions. In the U.S., former FBI Director James Comey testifies… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 7, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] In Iran, a gunman and suicide bomber attacked the Iranian parliament and the Ayatollah Rullah Khomeini shrine. The Sunni-led group ISIS has claimed responsibility for both attacks, its first significant attack in Iran, which is majority Shiite. According to the Iranian news media, previous… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 6, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although there has been some market uncertainty due to political risks in the U.S. and U.K., the overnight news was relatively quiet. Market jitters seem to be due to concerns that tax and healthcare reforms have stalled, doubts as to whether Theresa May will… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Are the Germans Bad? (June 5, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady At the NATO meetings late last month, the German media reported that President Trump had called the Germans “bad” for running trade surpluses with the U.S. The president threatened trade restrictions, focusing on German automobiles. Needless to say, this comment caused a minor international incident. Although such incidents come and go, it did… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 5, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although financial markets are quiet, there is a lot happening in the news. Here is what we saw as important: President Trump ready with two Fed governor nominations: The president, according to numerous media reports, is prepared to fill two of the current three… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 2, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee In the last FOMC minutes, policymakers signaled another hike at the upcoming June 14th meeting. We continue to closely monitor financial conditions but, so far, financial markets are rather sanguine about the impact of policy tightening. The blue line on the chart shows the Chicago FRB Financial Conditions Index, which measures the… Read More »