Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – North Korea and China: A Difficult History, Part I (October 16, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady The U.S. and North Korea have had a difficult history. The two countries were the primary combatants during the Korean War and still have not established a peace treaty. However, in the late 1970s, the Kim regime and the Carter administration considered normalizing relations. Carter’s national security team concluded there was little value… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 16, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although U.S. financial markets are quiet, there is a lot going on. Here’s what we are watching this morning: War in Iraq? Iraqi troops have taken a refinery and captured oil fields surrounding the city of Kirkuk. So far, only Iraqi regular army troops have been… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 13, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee With the S&P making new highs almost daily, it is probably a good time to look at long-term trends to build some parameters. This is a simple trend chart of the S&P 500 Index. We have log-transformed the weekly Friday closes of the index data and regressed it against a time trend. … Read More »
Daily Comment (October 13, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are quiet again this morning; we are seeing the dollar weaken a bit and bonds rally on the weaker than forecast CPI data. On the other hand, retail sales were strong, although some of that is coming from hurricane distortion. Here is what we are… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 12, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Fed minutes: The Fed minutes didn’t have a lot of surprises; we would characterize them as modestly dovish. Going off the terms used, “several” members were uncertain about inflation and wanted more data to improve their confidence, while “a few” believed that additional increases should… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2017)
Letter to Investors In my last letter I wrote of the tendency of investors to think of the economy and the markets as linear phenomena, rather than cyclical phenomena. In other words, an inclination to think that a good economy will continue its upward path forever unless some villain intercedes and causes a recession. However,… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 11, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although overall market activity is quiet this morning, there is a good bit of news. Here is what we are watching this morning: Catalonia blinks—Rajoy presses: Yesterday, Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont declared and suspended independence, asking for talks with Madrid. PM Rajoy is having none of… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 10, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although it was mostly quiet overnight, we are awaiting a potential declaration of independence from Catalonia. Here is what we are tracking this morning: A declaration of independence? Catalan Leader Carles Puigdemont is expected to address the regional parliament in Barcelona at 11:00 EDT amid growing… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Four Horsemen of Leveling: A Book Review (October 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady Occasionally, we find a book that has such an interesting message that we dedicate a Weekly Geopolitical Report to reviewing it. This week, we will look at The Great Leveler by Walter Scheidel.[1] The book is an extensive historical analysis of inequality and the factors that reduce it. In this report, we will… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a slow news morning. Columbus Day is being celebrated, which means the Federal Government and Treasury market are closed. Equities are open. Here is what we are tracking this morning. A Turkish spat: Turkish financial markets have been roiled this morning after both the U.S.… Read More »