Research & News
Daily Comment (September 18, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Fed week! The FOMC meets this week, beginning tomorrow and ending on Wednesday. This meeting will bring new forecasts, dot plots and a press conference. Here is what we are watching today: The President to the UN: President Trump will address the UN today. Although… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 15, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee In our most recent asset allocation rebalancing, we added foreign allocations to our portfolios. Over the past few years, we had generally avoided allocations to non-U.S. markets in asset allocation portfolios due to two primary concerns. First, the dollar had been appreciating as a result of an improving U.S. economy and policy… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 15, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Hawkish comments from the BOE continue to lift the GBP. Here is what we are watching today: North Korea launches (yawn): As expected, North Korea launched a missile that passed over the Japanese island of Hokkaido. The missile appears to be an intermediate-range ballistic missile, not… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 14, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] With the exception of the GBP, financial markets were quiet overnight. However, the CPI data and reports that North Korea may be preparing for a missile launch have led to increased volatility. And, there was a lot of news to cover this morning. Here is what… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 13, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are quiet this morning but there is a good bit of news. Here is what we are watching this morning: Census releases household income: The media is broadly reporting the Census Bureau report that real household income hit a new record at $59,039 in… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 12, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Yesterday’s market action was consistent with a sharp reversal in the recent risk trade. Amidst concerns about North Korea, the debt ceiling, trends in Washington, hurricane problems, etc., we saw Treasuries and gold rally, the dollar stumble and equities tread water. Those positions reversed yesterday with… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Nationalism: Part III (September 11, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady Three weeks ago, we began our series on nationalism. In Part I, we discussed social contract theory before and after the Enlightenment. We examined three social contract theorists, Thomas Hobbes, John Locke and Jean-Jacques Rousseau. In Part II, we recounted Western history from the American and French Revolutions into WWII. From there, we… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 11, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Sixteen years ago, the U.S. suffered its worst terrorist attack in its history. The nation was changed in numerous ways, both large and small. Every time we fly commercial we are reminded that our safety was compromised. The country is still trying to unwind two wars… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 8, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee As the FOMC prepares to reduce its balance sheet, it’s a good time to update our views on long-term interest rates. The chart below shows our current estimate of fair value for the 10-year Treasury. The model uses fed funds, the 15-year moving average of CPI (an inflation expectations proxy), the yen/dollar… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 8, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Market action is sluggish this morning; the big story is the continued weakness in the dollar. Here is what we are watching today: The dollar in perspective: The EUR is threatening $1.210 and the greenback continues to slide despite dovish comments from ECB President Draghi yesterday. … Read More »