Research & News
Daily Comment (September 7, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy productivity day! Lots of news this morning; here is what we are watching: The ECB: The ECB’s statement was a repeat of the one from a few weeks ago. In the press conference, the reporters focused most of their questions on the exchange rate. President… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 6, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are easing off the flight from risk exhibited yesterday. There wasn’t a lot of breaking news overnight, but there are currently several significant news items. Here’s a recap: Hurricane Irma: There are three tropical events in the Atlantic but Irma is the current focus… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 5, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Goodbye summer! We are now moving into autumn. Here is what we are watching today: North Korea: The Hermit Kingdom was active over the holiday weekend. It detonated another nuclear device, claims to have miniaturized it for a warhead and is reportedly preparing for another missile… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 1, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee We have previously documented the difference between S&P 500 operating earnings reported by Thomson/Reuters and Standard and Poor’s. Although both series purport to measure the same thing, there can be rather wide divergences. These exist due to differences in how unusual events are accounted for; we do often see long periods where… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 1, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Employment Day! We recap the numbers below. Here is what we are watching today: Q3 GDP looking strong: Q2 GDP was revised to 3.0%, and the Atlanta FRB is projecting a 3.3% growth rate for Q3. We present the relevant charts below. The estimated growth… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 31, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s the last day of August. Here is what we are watching today: Russian bank problem: Otkritie is a bank in Russia that has become insolvent. The bank has close ties to the government and has apparently enjoyed rapid growth by absorbing the assets of smaller… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 30, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy GDP day! We cover the GDP data below, but the report showed 3.0% annualized growth. Interest rates have ticked higher and the dollar is recovering from yesterday’s weakness. Here is what we are following this morning: Harvey hits Louisiana: After slamming Texas with massive rains,… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 29, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are in “risk on” mode this morning after the North Korean missile test. Treasuries and gold are higher, while equities and the dollar are weaker. In fact, the EUR broke above the 1.200 level for the first time in two years. Here is what… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Nationalism: Part II (August 28, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Labor Day holiday, the next report will be published on September 11.) Last week, we began our series on nationalism. In Part I of this report, we discussed social contract theory before and after the Enlightenment. We examined three social contract theorists, Thomas Hobbes, John Locke and Jean-Jacques Rousseau. This… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 28, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a busy weekend of news. Our thoughts and prayers go out to our friends in Texas. Here’s what we are watching: Harvey: TS Harvey made landfall going into the weekend as a category 4 hurricane. Usually, hurricanes make landfall, move inland and dissipate within… Read More »