Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 25, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee When President Trump was elected, there were expectations that fiscal policy would become more stimulative, which would lead to faster growth, tighter monetary policy and dollar strength. There were also promises of regulatory relief. In November, soon after the election, financial markets, exercising their usual pattern of discounting the future, immediately began… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 25, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] South Korean war games: Pyongyang has repeated its threats of retaliation in response to the South Korean war games, contending that the drills act as a precursor to the imminent invasion of North Korea. Pyongyang reportedly threatened that the U.K. would face a “miserable end” if… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 24, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Iran strikes back: Saudi Arabia’s plan to isolate Iran may have backfired. The WSJ reports that Qatar has decided to restore diplomatic and bilateral trade ties with Iran despite pressure from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a coalition of Arab countries that also includes the United… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 23, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Trump attacks Washington and the media: President Trump made his first major speech on immigration yesterday in Phoenix, Arizona, during which he placated his base by threatening to shut down the government if the border wall isn’t funded, alluding to a withdrawal from NAFTA and attacking… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 22, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The president’s address: Last night, President Trump announced that he would expand the U.S. role in Afghanistan but did not give any specifics of the plan. Additionally, the president stated that the U.S. will begin to pressure Pakistan to assist in the fight against terrorism as… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Nationalism: Part I (August 21, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady Over the last decade, the West has seen a series of tumultuous events. Of course, ten years ago the world was trying to cope with the Great Financial Crisis which raised fears of a repeat of the Great Depression. Although that outcome was avoided, deep underlying problems remain. Southern Europe faced a series… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 21, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Eclipse Day! Here are the news items we are following this morning: Afghanistan policy: Tonight, President Trump will present his policy on Afghanistan. Already we are seeing the impact of Chief of Staff (CoS) Kelly; so far, there have been no leaks of his plans. … Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 18, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee A number of market commentators have suggested current conditions are similar to 1987. Complacency, shown by the low level of volatility and an elevated P/E, is rampant. On the other hand, there is no evidence a recession is looming and, although monetary policy is tightening, the Federal Reserve has been raising rates… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 18, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Yesterday saw a selloff in U.S. equities. We are not seeing much of a recovery this morning. Here is what we are watching today: Barcelona: Using rented vans, a group of terrorists who claimed allegiance to ISIS tore through a tourist area of Barcelona, killing 14… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 17, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There is something of a negative tone to risk assets this morning but nothing that, so far, appears significant. Here is what we are watching today: ECB minutes: The main takeaway from the ECB minutes is that the recent rise in the EUR has caught the… Read More »