Research & News
Daily Comment (September 25, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a busy weekend. Here are the stories we are following: Merkel slips: Merkel’s CDU/CSU won the election as expected, but underperformed expectations. Her party took 32.9% of the votes compared to the last poll predicting a result of 34%. However, most polls going into… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 22, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee In a recent speech,[1] New York FRB President Bill Dudley made the case that the FOMC should continue to reduce monetary stimulus even though inflation remains below target. His contention is that benign financial conditions in the face of tighter policy are creating distortions in financial markets, resulting in the need for… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 22, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There is much to discuss this morning. Let’s get to it: North Korea returns: After President Trump’s speech to the UN we have been waiting for a response from the Kim regime. Overnight, we got our answer. The Young Marshal offered a rambling response to Trump… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 21, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are consolidating after yesterday’s Fed meeting, which we will discuss below. The key takeaway is the dollar’s rally. In the Asset Allocation Weekly published on Friday (see gray section below), we analyzed the case for a weaker dollar; it rests on the fact that… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 20, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are very quiet in front of the FOMC meeting. We get the results later today at 2:00 EDT, with a press conference about 30 minutes later. Here is what we are watching: The UN speech: On the surface, the president’s speech at the UN was… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 19, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are very quiet in front of the FOMC meeting, which begins later this morning. President Trump offers formal remarks to the UN this morning, too. Here is what we are watching: The Fed: As we noted yesterday, we look for the Fed to begin balance… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – North Korea: An Update (September 18, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady The Kim regime has become increasingly belligerent, launching a number of ballistic missiles and testing what appears to be a hydrogen device. It is also claiming it has miniaturized a warhead, meaning, if true, North Korea is a nuclear power. The U.S. has indicated this development is unacceptable. Although the Trump administration still… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 18, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Fed week! The FOMC meets this week, beginning tomorrow and ending on Wednesday. This meeting will bring new forecasts, dot plots and a press conference. Here is what we are watching today: The President to the UN: President Trump will address the UN today. Although… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 15, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee In our most recent asset allocation rebalancing, we added foreign allocations to our portfolios. Over the past few years, we had generally avoided allocations to non-U.S. markets in asset allocation portfolios due to two primary concerns. First, the dollar had been appreciating as a result of an improving U.S. economy and policy… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 15, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Hawkish comments from the BOE continue to lift the GBP. Here is what we are watching today: North Korea launches (yawn): As expected, North Korea launched a missile that passed over the Japanese island of Hokkaido. The missile appears to be an intermediate-range ballistic missile, not… Read More »