Research & News
Daily Comment (March 27, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are in retreat this morning as bond yields fall and the dollar declines. What we are seeing is the reversal of the “Trump trade” that came out of the election. The Trump trade was to buy equities (especially financials), sell bonds… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 24, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee In a recent Bloomberg Surveillance podcast,[1] Sebastian Mallaby made an interesting observation about the recent Fed tightening. He noted how the asset markets mostly ignored or cheered the move. Mallaby suggested that this isn’t necessarily a good outcome, meaning that central bank tightening should not be welcomed by the financial markets. When… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 24, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The focus of attention remains on the AHCA, which is due for a vote this afternoon. The president has already pivoted on this issue; he has warned that if the vote fails, the GOP is stuck with the ACA for good and he is… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 23, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Yesterday, there was a terrorist attack near Parliament in the U.K. Five people were killed (including the terrorist) and around 40 injured. Although reports suggest the attacker, who hasn’t been named yet, acted alone, eight others have been arrested. This attack followed the pattern… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 22, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Yesterday saw the first 1% decline in the S&P since October. We have seen a strong rise in equities since the Trump election, with much of it coming from expectations of stronger economic growth due to fiscal spending, tax cuts and deregulation. It does… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 21, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As noted below, we have a full slate of Fed officials talking today. We expect these speakers to generally confirm the Fed’s policy stance for at least two more hikes this year, with the potential for a third. The most interesting member, Minneapolis FRB… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Rise of AMLO: Part II (March 20, 2017)
by Thomas Wash In their next general election, Mexicans will cast their vote for the 64th president of the country’s history. The two frontrunners are Margarita Zavala from the National Action Party and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) from the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA). Although the election won’t be held until July 2018, current polls suggest… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 20, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although it has been a quiet morning, there was a lot of news over the weekend. Here’s what we saw as noteworthy: Mnuchin won’t disavow protectionism: The G-20 communiqué usually includes language supporting free trade and opposing protectionism. Of course, in practice, there really… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 17, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee The FOMC has moved on rates; as expected, the Fed lifted its target fed funds rate to a range between 75 bps and 100 bps. The projections are for a 1.50% rate by the end of 2017 and a 2.25% rate by the end of 2018. In this week’s report, we want… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 17, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy St. Patrick’s Day! It’s a quiet morning in what has been a busy week. The only major news today is that Chancellor Merkel, who was due to visit earlier this week but was unable due to the snowstorm, is in Washington today. … Read More »