Research & News
Daily Comment (August 7, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a quiet Monday morning in August. Washington is mostly on recess and families are squeezing out the last few days of summer before school begins. Here are the notable news items. Sanctions on North Korea: The UNSC voted unanimously to apply further sanctions on North… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 4, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee Two weeks ago, we detailed our expectations for a weaker dollar. If we are correct, one of the potential effects could be inflation. A weaker dollar has two price effects. First, it directly raises import prices. Second, it gives pricing power to domestic firms competing with imports as price pressures should dissipate… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 4, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment day! We cover the data in detail below but the headline numbers are reflecting a strong economy. Payrolls came in at 209k, with revisions adding a modest 2k. Expectations called for a 180k rise. The unemployment rate was on forecast at 4.3%, down from… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 3, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Washington is shutting down for August, earnings remain solid and news flow is rather quiet. Here’s what we are watching today. BOE holds steady: The BOE held everything steady. Its QE remains in place and rates were left unchanged. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 8-0… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 2, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a quiet overnight trade. The Reserve Bank of India did cut rates as expected. Here are the trending news items we are watching: Trade war with China: Several media outlets are reporting that the administration is opening a broad investigation into China’s trade practices… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 1, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are higher this morning on the second day of Gen. Kelly’s tour as Chief of Staff (CoS). Here are the news items we are watching: The “Mooch” is out: Anthony Scaramucci left his role as communications director. It isn’t completely clear if he… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – A Coup in Riyadh (July 31, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady On June 20th, King Salman of Saudi Arabia announced that his son, Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS, as he is affectionately known), would be the new crown prince, replacing Prince Mohammed bin Nayef. Although the move was momentous, it was not necessarily unexpected. MbS’s stature in the kingdom had been rising since he… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 31, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy St. Ignatius of Loyola Day! The weekend was news heavy—here’s what we are watching this morning. A new Chief of Staff: Reince Priebus was removed from the Chief of Staff position at the White House late Friday. Although it does appear he resigned the day… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 28, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee As the S&P 500 steadily rises to new highs, concerns about a correction will likely increase. Since 1987, major market pullbacks have been associated with recessions and there isn’t much evidence to suggest the business cycle is set to turn. In the absence of a recession, we tend to look for factors… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 28, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Unlike the past few days, there was a lot of news overnight. Here’s what happened: The Senate fails to “repeal and replace”: In the wee small hours of the morning,[1] three GOP senators joined the full contingent of Democrats to kill any chance of ending the… Read More »