Research & News
Keller Quarterly (July 2017)
Letter to Investors It’s terribly hot here in the Midwest. It wouldn’t be a normal Missouri summer if it didn’t touch 100 degrees for a week or two. As uncomfortable as it is, what makes it tolerable is the knowledge that in a couple of months the brutal heat will have left us and a… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 27, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing stronger equities, weaker bond prices and a stable dollar this morning. Here’s the news we are following: The FOMC: The Fed statement didn’t offer too many surprises. It did admit that inflation is running below target but didn’t elaborate about the future path… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 26, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good Wednesday morning! It’s Fed day. Other than that, we continue to see the major U.S. equity indices quietly make new highs. Good earnings and nothing earthshattering coming from Washington are playing a role in lifting equity values. Here are the news items of interest today.… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 25, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s another quiet summer trading day. Here are the items making news: The FOMC meeting begins later today: The Fed has created a problem for itself. The U.S. central bank meets every six weeks (or eight times per year), but because it makes four meetings out… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – A Productivity Boom: A Response to Robert Gordon, Part II (July 24, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we began an analysis of Michael Mandel and Bret Swanson’s paper[1] which is a response to Robert Gordon’s argument that the West is doomed to a prolonged period of slow productivity growth. In Part I of this report, we examined the productivity issue and discussed Mandel and Swanson’s analysis of the… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 24, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s another quiet, summertime session. Here are the items we are watching this morning: OPEC meeting: The OPEC meeting is wrapping up with no new production cuts. However, Saudi Arabia has promised to reduce its oil exports which is modestly positive. As we noted last week,… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 21, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Here are the items we are following this morning: Pardon me: Numerous media reports indicate that the Trump administration is exploring pardoning options and ways to ring fence Special Counsel Mueller’s investigation. There are overtones of Nixon in these comments. First, seeking pardons when… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 21, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee In the past few years, we have generally avoided allocations to non-U.S. markets for our asset allocation portfolios due to two primary concerns. First, the dollar was rising as a result of an improving U.S. economy and policy divergences between the U.S. and the rest of the world. The Federal Reserve was… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2017)
Economic data remain supportive and the inflation outlook is currently benign. Though the economic expansion is elongated, we do not anticipate a near-term recession. Fed policy is expected to tighten in terms of rising short-term rates and the reduction in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. We expect the Fed to commence the reduction… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 20, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity markets continue their quiet rise to new records. Here are the items we are watching this morning. ECB, BOJ lean dovish: The BOJ came out overnight with nothing that wasn’t unexpected. It is clear the bank won’t reach its inflation targets anytime soon, so it… Read More »