Research & News
Daily Comment (September 25, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with the latest on Canada’s allegations that India assassinated a Canadian citizen in British Columbia in June. The resulting strain on Canadian-Indian relations could have big implications for the U.S.’s effort to use India as an economic and… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Where’s the Recession? A Recap (September 25, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Precise recession forecasting is really difficult. Most recessions occur during periods of tightening monetary policy; however, history shows that monetary policy works with “long and variable lags,” meaning that the impact of rising interest rates doesn’t lead to consistent timing of downturns. It’s a bit like wanting to… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 22, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment is divided into three sections: 1) Why the BOJ may not change policy anytime soon; 2) How the media narrative may either help or hurt strikers; and 3) Why improved relations with Saudi Arabia and Israel may help… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 21, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment is split into three sections: 1) How the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision will impact its policy for next year; 2) Why governments may be forced to moderate some of their climate goals; and 3) Why support for… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (September 21, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices have continued their rise, with Brent trending toward $95 per barrel. Recent extensions of the production cuts by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) have boosted prices. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 2.1 mb compared to forecasts of a 1.7… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 20, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with the evolving relationship between the European Union and China. We next review a range of other international and U.S. developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including a short military operation in the Caucasus… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 19, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with updated forecasts for global economic growth from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The OECD report also urged central banks to keep hiking interest rates and keep them high to snuff out consumer price inflation. We… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Goodbye Prigozhin (September 18, 2023)
Bill O’Grady | PDF On August 23, an executive jet carrying seven passengers and three crew members crashed near Moscow on a flight to St. Petersburg. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, a private Russian military company, was reportedly one of the passengers. Prigozhin was having an eventful summer. He had led an… Read More »