Research & News
Daily Comment (August 14, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There was a lot of news over the weekend. Here is what we see as important: North Korea fears ease: Although worries remain about an escalation of tensions with North Korea, as we noted last week, there is no evidence of U.S. mobilization for an attack… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 11, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee Although measuring “malaise” is more art than science, overall feelings of wellbeing or the lack thereof affect markets, politics, etc. One less common way to measure this is the ratio between discretionary spending compared to overall spending. Discretionary spending is defined as total spending less what is spent on food, clothing, energy… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 11, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Commentary from the White House remains belligerent, but U.S. equity futures appear to be stabilizing. Here is what we are watching: U.S. v. North Korea: In a press event yesterday, President Trump doubled down on his bellicose rhetoric against North Korea. He added to it this… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 10, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are lower this morning as tensions surrounding North Korea rise. There is a growing chorus of commentators warning about a repeat of 1987 (maybe because we are approaching the 30-year anniversary?), which would be momentous because that crash was the last major one… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s not quiet today. There is a lot of news, almost all geopolitical. We are seeing modest “flight to safety” in financial markets this morning, with equities in retreat while Treasuries, gold, the Swiss franc and Japanese yen move higher. We don’t expect any equity pullbacks… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 8, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets remain quiet. Here are some of the headlines we are following: Zuma out? South Africa’s president, Jacob Zuma, faces a parliamentary vote of no-confidence today (around 9:45 EDT). That isn’t exactly news as this is the sixth such vote Zuma has faced. There is… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Qatar Situation: Part I (August 7, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady On June 6th, several members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)[1] announced a sweeping blockade of Qatar, also a member of the GCC. The GCC members enforcing the blockade, led by Saudi Arabia, issued a list of 13 demands which Qatar rejected. Since the blockade was implemented, Qatar has managed to replenish basic… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 7, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a quiet Monday morning in August. Washington is mostly on recess and families are squeezing out the last few days of summer before school begins. Here are the notable news items. Sanctions on North Korea: The UNSC voted unanimously to apply further sanctions on North… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 4, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee Two weeks ago, we detailed our expectations for a weaker dollar. If we are correct, one of the potential effects could be inflation. A weaker dollar has two price effects. First, it directly raises import prices. Second, it gives pricing power to domestic firms competing with imports as price pressures should dissipate… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 4, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment day! We cover the data in detail below but the headline numbers are reflecting a strong economy. Payrolls came in at 209k, with revisions adding a modest 2k. Expectations called for a 180k rise. The unemployment rate was on forecast at 4.3%, down from… Read More »