Research & News
Daily Comment (June 27, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] BREAKING NEWS: THE IMF HAS LOWERED U.S. GDP GROWTH FORECASTS FOR 2017-18. GROWTH FOR 2017 WAS CUT TO 2.1% FROM 2.3%. FOR 2018, THE FORECAST FALLS TO 2.1% FROM 2.5%. LACK OF FISCAL SPENDING ON INFRASTRUCTURE AND LACK OF TAX REFORM WERE CITED. Here… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Second Korean War: Part II (June 26, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady (N.B. Due to the Independence Day holiday, our next report will be published on July 10th. That edition will be our Mid-Year Geopolitical Update.) Last week, we offered background on the situation with North Korea. We presented a short history of the Korean War with a concentration on the lessons learned by the… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 26, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Here’s a recap of the weekend news: Italy bails out two banks: Veneto Banca and Banca Popolare di Vicenza were declared failed by the ECB on Friday. Over the weekend, the Italian government bailed out the banks, shielding senior bondholders from losses. EU rules… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 23, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee The FOMC did raise rates at the June meeting, which was fully expected. The dots chart suggested that we would see one more hike this year and three next year. In addition, the central bank gave some indication of how it would shrink its balance sheet. Although the statement didn’t signal when… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 23, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] News flow overnight was rather slow. This is typical of summer. The Senate is working on its version of health care and, no surprise, is dealing with the same problems the House faced—to make the bill palatable to moderates, it fails to garner votes… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 22, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Most of the overnight news surrounds the oil market; we have our analysis of the weekly data below and we will offer our views on oil there. We are seeing reports that China is trying to work out a deal with North Korea in… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 21, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] In the overnight news: MSCI opens up for China: The index producer has been reluctant to add domestic shares of Chinese companies due to numerous concerns, including capital controls, lack of accounting transparency, etc. This is something of a big deal, but also not. … Read More »
Daily Comment (June 20, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There were five news items worth noting overnight: Carney goes dovish: Last week, the BOE voted to keep policy steady but had three dissenters. In a speech today, BOE Governor Carney focused on the economic problems that could be triggered by Brexit and suggested… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Second Korean War: Part I (June 19, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady Tensions with North Korea have been escalating in recent months. The regime has tested numerous missiles and claims to be capable of building nuclear warheads, which, combined with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), would make the Hermit Kingdom a direct threat to the U.S. Such a situation is intolerable to the U.S., and… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 19, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are rising this morning, although the weekend news was mixed. Here’s a recap: Macron dominates in France: Emmanuel Macron, the recently elected president of France, solidified his new government with a solid win, capturing 350 of the 577 seats in the… Read More »