Research & News
Daily Comment (January 12, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The primary market theme this morning appears to be a broad reversal of the so-called “Trump trades” that have dominated the markets since the election. We are seeing weaker equities globally and the dollar is weaker, while Treasuries and gold are doing better. There… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 11, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There was a lot of political and geopolitical news overnight. The most widely covered were reports that the Russians have compromising information about Donald Trump. The 32-page report, published last night by Buzzfeed, makes a series of allegations, suggesting that the president-elect engaged in… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 10, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] China reported its producer prices (see below). China’s PPI has been rising, suggesting growing inflation pressures in the country. Over the past year, producer prices have been rising rapidly in China after more than two years of producer price deflation. The combination of monetary… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – War Gaming: Part I (January 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day, Part II of this report will be published on January 23.) One of the key elements of global hegemony is the ability of a nation to project power. Ideally, this means a potential hegemon needs local security. In other words, a nation that faces significant proximate… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was a rather quiet weekend. We are seeing a drop in oil prices this morning attributed to reports that production in Northern Iraq, which is under Kurdish control, may be rising. It was never certain whether the Kurds would cooperate and the worry… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 6, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee Over the holiday, I had the pleasure of reading Sebastian Mallaby’s recent biography of Alan Greenspan.[1] The book was thoroughly researched and well-written, and I recommend it to our readers, albeit with fair warning—it’s long and the endnotes are critical to fully understanding the points of the work. Here are the key… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 6, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy employment data day! We have the details below but, in general, the data was mostly in line with expectations. We did see a bit of wage growth which has been bearish for bonds but supportive for the dollar. U.S. crude oil inventories fell… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2017)
The November elections have had a significant impact on the financial markets. It is important to watch how policies from the new administration unfold. We don’t expect new policies to rapidly accelerate economic growth. However, we do expect growth to improve modestly in 2017. Our equity allocations are entirely domestic. We shift allocations toward large… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 5, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Initial comments from the Fed minutes yesterday suggested they were somewhat hawkish. Market action this morning, especially the dollar’s retreat, has led commentators to suggest that the minutes were, in fact, dovish. We suspect they were neither. The FOMC is in the same situation… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 4, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was mostly quiet overnight. Perhaps the most interesting news came from National Front Leader Marine Le Pen, who indicated that she would want a single currency in Europe to continue even if France leaves the Eurozone. Le Pen has said before that if… Read More »