Research & News
Daily Comment (May 26, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The GDP data (see below) came in much better than forecast and that is giving a bounce to equities this morning. It’s a long Memorial Day weekend, which usually means the afternoon trade will become very thin and sluggish. The big news overnight was… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 25, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC minutes held no surprises—barring a sudden downturn in the data, the next rate hike will come on June 14. Dallas FRB President Kaplan gave a speech in Toronto yesterday and indicated that he expects two more rate hikes this year; thus, if… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 24, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial and commodity markets are very quiet this morning. U.S. equity futures markets are mostly steady, the dollar is becalmed and there is a modest bid for Treasuries. There was some important news overnight. Here are the high points: Moody’s downgrades China: The U.S.… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 23, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] A deadly terrorist attack occurred in Manchester, U.K. last night as an apparent suicide bomber exploded a bomb outside a concert venue as a concert was ending. At present, 22 have died and over 50 were wounded. IS has taken responsibility for the attack. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Trade: Part IV (May 22, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Memorial Day holiday, our next report will be published on June 5.) This is the final report of our four-part series on trade. This week, our discussion on trade continues with a look at the relationship between trade, employment and inflation. We will also conclude the series with market ramifications.… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 22, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The news over the weekend was fairly quiet, although there were several things we noted: The first leg of the president’s trip went rather well: President Trump offered support to authoritarians in Egypt and the Gulf State which was well received. Iran was isolated as… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 19, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee One of the significant “known/unknowns” is the true condition of the labor market. The below chart highlights the issue. The blue line is the unemployment rate, while the red line is the employment/population ratio (scale inverted). From 1980 until 2010, these two series closely tracked each other. During the period since the… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 19, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] After a week of tumult, things appear rather quiet this morning. Equities have a bullish tone after a drop midweek. Oil prices are up as OPEC officials meet to prepare for next week’s policy setting meeting. There are hopes that the broader cartel can… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 18, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] One question we have been getting for the past couple of months is, “How can the equity market keep rising in the face of all this political turmoil?” The standard answer is that financial markets focus on the economy, market fundamentals, etc. and only… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 17, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The political problem du jour is that former FBI Director Comey apparently kept memos and notes of his meetings and phone contacts with President Trump. This is standard practice in bureaucracies. Writing “memos for the file” is a way to preserve one side of… Read More »