Research & News
Daily Comment (January 3, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy New Year! We’re back… After some profit-taking into year’s end, the first trading day of the year is starting off with a return to mid-December trends—long-term interest rates are rising, the dollar is up and U.S. equities are up as well. The dollar’s… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (December 30, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady The Market Oil prices have broken above their $44 to $52 per barrel trading range in the wake of the recent OPEC output agreement. OPEC In a reversal of recent policy, Saudi Arabia spearheaded an agreement to cut oil production. OPEC has agreed to cut production by about 1.3 mbpd and select… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 23, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Due to the upcoming holidays, the next edition of this report will be published on January 6, 2017. The Fed gave us a modest hawkish surprise last week, calling for three rate hikes in 2017 rather than two. The news has boosted Treasury yields and lifted the dollar. Equities mostly absorbed the… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 23, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] (Note to readers: We are suspending the Daily Comment next week, starting on Tuesday, December 27. We will restart the report on Tuesday, January 3. From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, we wish you a warm and blessed holiday season!) Happy… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 22, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] (Note to readers: We are suspending the Daily Comment next week, starting on Tuesday, December 27. We will restart the report on Tuesday, January 3. From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, we wish you a warm and blessed holiday season!) There… Read More »
2017 Outlook (December 21, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Key Points: The economy will avoid a recession in 2017. GDP growth is expected to average 2.8% with core PCE inflation approaching the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%. Fixed income markets will be challenging: We expect three rate hikes of 25 bps each by the FOMC; Due… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 21 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Winter Solstice! Market activity is clearly slowing as the year winds down. Depressed market activity this time of year isn’t anything new; because of slow trade and thinning volumes, investors should refrain from reading too much into technical signals this time of year.… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 20, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There wasn’t much on the economic front overnight. The BOJ, as expected, left policy unchanged. There had been some rumblings about the Japanese central bank allowing bond yields to rise in line with rates in the U.S. To recount, the BOJ has fixed its… Read More »
