Research & News
Daily Comment (May 16, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Another controversy…the Washington Post[1] reported late yesterday that President Trump revealed highly classified information to the Russian foreign minister and ambassador. Although not illegal (the president essentially can determine the distribution and classification of information), the decision to share the intelligence is potentially reckless. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Trade: Part III (May 15, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady This week, we continue our discussion on trade by examining the reserve currency issue. What is the reserve currency? When a country runs a trade surplus, it creates excess saving that must be either invested overseas or held as foreign reserves. If a gold standard is being used, the excess saving/foreign reserves can… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 15, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are quiet, although we are seeing a strong rally in crude oil (see below). Here are the themes we are following this morning. BREAKING: Edouard Philippe has been named PM of France. He is a member of the Republican Party, suggesting the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 12, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee Slow economic growth has plagued the West. Although the concern has been acute since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), worries about slowing growth predated that event. Perhaps the most important factor contributing to sluggish growth has been tepid productivity growth. This chart shows the five-year change in productivity; we use this longer… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 12, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although the Comey situation continues to dominate the news flow, we are reaching the point where there isn’t really anything new. So far, the financial markets are managing the situation calmly. The U.S. and China announced a trade agreement. On its surface, it doesn’t… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 11, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Media attention remains on the Comey firing. On this issue, there are three stories we view as notable this morning. Deputy AG Rosenstein threatened to resign: The WP[1] is reporting that the deputy AG threatened to resign as the narrative emerging from the White… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 10, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The story dominating this morning’s headlines is the Trump administration’s decision to fire FBI Director Comey. There is much speculation surrounding what is going on with the decision; our focus will remain on the impact on financial markets. So far, it hasn’t had much… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There isn’t a lot of economic or market news this morning. Most of the market talk is swirling around the low level of the VIX. Our contention is that the Fed is actively trying to suppress financial stress; in doing so, the need for… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Trade: Part II (May 8, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady In this multi-part report, we offer several reflections on trade that we hope can provide some insight into how to use macroeconomics to judge the veracity of certain claims. In Part I, we laid out the basic macroeconomics of trade. This week, in Part II, we will discuss the impact of exchange rates… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 8, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Emmanuel Macron won a resounding victory in Sunday’s French presidential elections, winning 66.1% to 33.9%, an even bigger landslide than polls suggested. Le Pen did do well in the de-industrializing north and in the anti-immigrant south, but she struggled elsewhere. To win, Le Pen… Read More »