Research & News
Daily Comment (October 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a slow news morning. Columbus Day is being celebrated, which means the Federal Government and Treasury market are closed. Equities are open. Here is what we are tracking this morning. A Turkish spat: Turkish financial markets have been roiled this morning after both the U.S.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 6, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee The latest FOMC meeting and subsequent comments from Chair Yellen have increased the likelihood of a December rate hike. This chart shows the implied likelihood of a rate hike compared to steady policy from fed funds futures for the December meeting. In early December, the projected odds of a hike were just… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 6, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment data day! We cover the release in detail below but the quick view is the report is mixed; payrolls actually declined but the unemployment rate did, too. The data was affected by weather events. The dollar rose on the news and Treasury yields rose… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 5, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are very quiet again this morning in front of the employment data on Friday. Here is what we are watching: PM May’s no good, very bad day: With compliments to Judith Viorst,[1] the Tory PM has had a really rough run recently. She was… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 4, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are very quiet again this morning in front of the employment data on Friday. Here is what we are watching this morning: Fed chair decision: President Trump has distilled a short list for replacing (or, perhaps, reappointing) the position of Fed chair. Below is… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 3, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are very quiet this morning. Because it’s quiet, let’s take a look at Europe: Catalonia, Spain and the EU: Every nation is a construct. It is built on a social contract that offers various public goods in exchange for membership. First and foremost, states… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 19th Party Congress (October 2, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady On October 18th, the Communist Party of China (CPC) will meet for the 19th Party Congress. China’s leadership for the next five years will be determined at this meeting. In this report, we will offer a background on China’s government, focusing on the difference between de jure (what is the official structure of… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 2, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a violent weekend. Here is what we are watching: The mess in Catalonia: Catalonia did hold an independence referendum over the weekend in the midst of a strong central government crackdown. Latest media reports suggest over 760 people were injured in clashes with central… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 29, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Financial Accounts of the U.S. was released last week by the Federal Reserve. The report is a treasure trove of data about the economy. This report shows the flow of funds and the balance sheet of the American economy. Although there is much to look at, here are a few charts… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 29, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy end of quarter day! Q3 comes to a close today and next week we begin the march to Q4. Markets are quiet at quarter end. Here is what we are watching: Social media and Russian bears: For the past several weeks, Facebook (FB, 168.73) has… Read More »