Research & News
Daily Comment (April 18, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Here are some of the news items we are following this morning: PM May calls snap election: Reversing her earlier stance, Theresa May has called for a general election on June 8. The previously scheduled election wasn’t due until 2020, but there are rising… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 17, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Erdogan narrowly wins: In Turkey, it appears that voters have approved major changes to the political system by a 51% to 49% margin. There were reports of widespread voter irregularity and the opposition has announced it will formally protest the vote. The new laws… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 13, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee The most recent Federal Reserve minutes indicated that the U.S. central bank is preparing to reverse its experiment with quantitative easing (QE) by reducing the size of its balance sheet. Although the eventual desire to reduce the size of the balance sheet is no real surprise, the timing was unclear. It now… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 13, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] In a wide-ranging interview, President Trump roiled the markets late yesterday by admitting that (a) China is not a currency manipulator; (b) the dollar is too strong; and (c) Chair Yellen might be invited to stay at the FOMC. Point (b) was the market-moving… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 12, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] SOS Tillerson is in Moscow as tensions are rising. The White House is accusing the Kremlin of having prior knowledge of the sarin attack in Syria and attempting to cover up the attack. Putin is suggesting that the U.S. is being “duped” by rebels… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (April 11, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady The Market Since December, oil prices have been ranging between $48 and $55 per barrel. Prices and Inventories Inventory levels remain elevated, reaching historic highs. In the above charts, the one on the left shows the long-term inventory situation, while the chart on the right shows a 12-year history. Normal inventories would… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 11, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity markets continue to meander; hopes for fiscal support continue to buoy equities but there are growing worries that the administration will fail to deliver. Geopolitical issues are a concern as well. Sean Spicer, the administration’s press secretary, seemed to add barrel bombs… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The EU at 60: Part II (April 10, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Easter holiday, the next edition will be published April 24th.) Last week, we began our retrospective on the EU. This week we will examine the post-Cold War expansion of the EU, including a discussion of the creation of the euro and the Eurozone. With this background, we will analyze the… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 10, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global markets are generally quiet this morning as investors try to discern how to handle President Trump’s new muscular exercise of foreign policy. After reading and reflecting over the weekend, we offer our take on the missile strike against Syria. First, this is a… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 7, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee In our 2017 Outlook, our earnings forecast for the S&P 500 was $119.45 per share, up from $106.25 in 2016.[1] Based on new data and other trends, we are raising this forecast to $126.44 for this year. There are three reasons for the change. The spread between Thomson-Reuters and S&P operating earnings… Read More »