Research & News
Daily Comment (April 7, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Employment Data Day! We cover the data in detail below but the payroll data, showing only a 98k rise, was quite disappointing. We suspect seasonal factors played a role as February weather was unusually mild while March was colder. It should also be… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 6, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Most of the time, Fed minutes are snoozers. On the other hand, there is often real action within the FOMC. The full meeting transcripts are published with a five-year lag and they show verbal sniping and open disagreement. By contrast, the minutes are sanitized… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 5, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Yesterday, Richmond FRB President Lacker announced he was stepping down immediately after admitting he was involved in a leak of confidential information to an analyst with Medley Advisors, a well-connected Washington think tank. In October 2012, Medley published details of Fed deliberations that were… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 4, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s another quiet and mostly sluggish day in global markets. The French are holding a presidential debate today at 8:40 pm local time (2:40 EDT) that will be closely watched. Current polling hasn’t changed; Le Pen and Macron will likely win the first round… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The EU at 60: Part I (April 3, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady On March 25th, European Union (EU) leaders from 27 nations gathered in Rome to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding of the organization. Although the EU currently consists of 28 members, the U.K. was absent due to its recent decision to leave the EU. On that day in 1957, France, West Germany,… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 3, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] BREAKING: There was a bombing on a St. Petersburg subway that has killed at least 10 and injured 50. This is still a developing story. Thus far, no group has claimed responsibility. With the recent widespread protests (according to reports, nearly 100 cities have… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 31, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee Historically, recessions tend to come from three sources—overly tight monetary policy, geopolitical events and inventory overhangs. The latter has mostly become irrelevant due to improved inventory management, leaving overly tight monetary policy and geopolitical events as the typical causes of downturns. As our regular readers know, we monitor both quite closely. One… Read More »