Research & News
Daily Comment (March 21, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As noted below, we have a full slate of Fed officials talking today. We expect these speakers to generally confirm the Fed’s policy stance for at least two more hikes this year, with the potential for a third. The most interesting member, Minneapolis FRB… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Rise of AMLO: Part II (March 20, 2017)
by Thomas Wash In their next general election, Mexicans will cast their vote for the 64th president of the country’s history. The two frontrunners are Margarita Zavala from the National Action Party and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) from the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA). Although the election won’t be held until July 2018, current polls suggest… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 20, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although it has been a quiet morning, there was a lot of news over the weekend. Here’s what we saw as noteworthy: Mnuchin won’t disavow protectionism: The G-20 communiqué usually includes language supporting free trade and opposing protectionism. Of course, in practice, there really… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 17, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee The FOMC has moved on rates; as expected, the Fed lifted its target fed funds rate to a range between 75 bps and 100 bps. The projections are for a 1.50% rate by the end of 2017 and a 2.25% rate by the end of 2018. In this week’s report, we want… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 17, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy St. Patrick’s Day! It’s a quiet morning in what has been a busy week. The only major news today is that Chancellor Merkel, who was due to visit earlier this week but was unable due to the snowstorm, is in Washington today. … Read More »
Daily Comment (March 16, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The Dutch elections reflected recent polling that showed declining support for Geert Wilders. However, despite media commentary suggesting that populism has been halted on the continent, a second look suggests that it’s not quite that simple. To recap, Wilders’s PVV party gained five seats,… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 15, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Ides of March! There are two big events today—the FOMC meeting ends with an expected rate hike, along with new dots and a press conference, and the Dutch go to the polls. The key issue for the FOMC is the path of future… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 14, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The two big news items since yesterday morning are from the U.K. and the CBO. In the U.K., PM May won her battle for a clean Brexit bill, meaning that Article 50 can be declared soon. We look for the declaration to come by… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Rise of AMLO: Part I (March 13, 2017)
by Thomas Wash Although many populist movements today, especially in the West, are viewed as a recent phenomenon, it is worth noting that Latin America has had a long history with populism. Populists in South American history include Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, Juan and Eva Perón, along with Nestor and Cristina Kirchner, in Argentina, Juan Evo… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 13, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] BREAKING NEWS: The Atlanta FRB announced that Raphael Bostic has been named as the new president, replacing the retiring Dennis Lockhart. Bostic will take over the bank on June 5. He was a housing official in the Obama administration and his academic work is… Read More »