Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 21, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we discussed the impact of reducing the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet on the economy. This week we will discuss the effects of QE on financial markets. The relationship between the balance sheet and equities seems rather straightforward; expanding the balance sheet appears to be clearly supportive for… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 21, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] On Sunday, the French go to the polls. The most recent polling shows Macron as the most popular candidate at 24.0%, with Le Pen second at 21.5%, Fillon at 20.0% and Mélenchon at 19.5%. Polls open at 8:00 am (CEST), which is 2:00 am… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 20, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The euphoria surrounding the election of President Trump appears to be waning. Although the sentiment polls remain elevated, we note the fixed income markets are clearly showing some jitters. This chart shows the two-year/10-year Treasury spread. Although the curve is steeper than it was… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 19, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] In Georgia, Jon Ossoff fell short of achieving the 50% threshold needed for him to win the vacant House of Representatives seat in Georgia. As a result, Ossoff will face Karen Handel, the Republican candidate, in a run-off on June 8. His surprise showing… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 18, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Here are some of the news items we are following this morning: PM May calls snap election: Reversing her earlier stance, Theresa May has called for a general election on June 8. The previously scheduled election wasn’t due until 2020, but there are rising… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 17, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Erdogan narrowly wins: In Turkey, it appears that voters have approved major changes to the political system by a 51% to 49% margin. There were reports of widespread voter irregularity and the opposition has announced it will formally protest the vote. The new laws… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 13, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee The most recent Federal Reserve minutes indicated that the U.S. central bank is preparing to reverse its experiment with quantitative easing (QE) by reducing the size of its balance sheet. Although the eventual desire to reduce the size of the balance sheet is no real surprise, the timing was unclear. It now… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 13, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] In a wide-ranging interview, President Trump roiled the markets late yesterday by admitting that (a) China is not a currency manipulator; (b) the dollar is too strong; and (c) Chair Yellen might be invited to stay at the FOMC. Point (b) was the market-moving… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 12, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] SOS Tillerson is in Moscow as tensions are rising. The White House is accusing the Kremlin of having prior knowledge of the sarin attack in Syria and attempting to cover up the attack. Putin is suggesting that the U.S. is being “duped” by rebels… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (April 11, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady The Market Since December, oil prices have been ranging between $48 and $55 per barrel. Prices and Inventories Inventory levels remain elevated, reaching historic highs. In the above charts, the one on the left shows the long-term inventory situation, while the chart on the right shows a 12-year history. Normal inventories would… Read More »