Research & News
Daily Comment (October 7, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are mixed this morning. The EuroStoxx 50 is trading lower by 0.5% from the last close. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Apex 50 closed lower by 0.3% from the prior close. Chinese markets are closed for the Golden Week holiday. U.S. equity futures… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 7, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee With the elections about a month away, we are fielding an increasing number of questions about the market impact of the result. Although some market commentators are raising concerns about a Trump victory, so far, market data doesn’t seem to suggest a high level of correlation. This chart shows Donald Trump’s average… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 6, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The IMF meetings are being held in Washington this weekend. We would not expect anything too earthshattering out of these discussions. However, the organization has calculated an interesting bit of data—the IMF estimates that the world has $152 trillion of debt, about twice the size of… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 5, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a rather quiet night. The VP debate came and went; polls suggest that Pence was better received but we doubt the interaction will change the election chances of either presidential candidate. There are some interesting trends starting to develop that are worth mentioning: Long-term… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 4, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] BREAKING NEWS: The IMF has updated its economic forecasts. Although world GDP growth remains steady, it has lowered Eurozone and U.S. GDP. Overall, economic growth remains sluggish. For the second straight day, the British pound (GBP) is taking a “pounding.” The proximate cause is PM May’s… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – American Foreign Policy: A Review, Part I (October 3, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady In watching the political debates in the U.S. this election season, there appears to be a general misunderstanding of American foreign policy. Although we have touched on this issue before, with the elections only about a month away, it seemed like a good time to review U.S. foreign policy since WWII. This week,… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 3, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Politics mostly dominated the weekend news flow, although Deutsche Bank (DB, $13.09, +1.61) was in the news, too. German markets are closed for a holiday (it’s Unification Day, the holiday that commemorates the official day when East and West Germany were reunited), so we haven’t seen… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 30, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, the FOMC left rates unchanged, as expected. The statement was rather hawkish but the accompanying information, such as the “dots” chart, was mostly dovish. Note that three of the 17 members of the committee want to stand pat for the rest of the year and two want to raise rates… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 30, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The market’s focus continues to center on the banking system, with Deutsche Bank (DB, $11.48, -0.82) being the most market relevant, although the travails of bankers testifying before Congress hasn’t helped the sector. Deutsche Bank is the bigger issue because it raises fears of systemic problems. … Read More »
