Research & News
Daily Comment (March 15, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Ides of March! There are two big events today—the FOMC meeting ends with an expected rate hike, along with new dots and a press conference, and the Dutch go to the polls. The key issue for the FOMC is the path of future… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 14, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The two big news items since yesterday morning are from the U.K. and the CBO. In the U.K., PM May won her battle for a clean Brexit bill, meaning that Article 50 can be declared soon. We look for the declaration to come by… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Rise of AMLO: Part I (March 13, 2017)
by Thomas Wash Although many populist movements today, especially in the West, are viewed as a recent phenomenon, it is worth noting that Latin America has had a long history with populism. Populists in South American history include Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, Juan and Eva Perón, along with Nestor and Cristina Kirchner, in Argentina, Juan Evo… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 13, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] BREAKING NEWS: The Atlanta FRB announced that Raphael Bostic has been named as the new president, replacing the retiring Dennis Lockhart. Bostic will take over the bank on June 5. He was a housing official in the Obama administration and his academic work is… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 10, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee As the FOMC prepares to raise interest rates, it’s a good time to update our views on long-term interest rates. The chart below shows our current estimate of fair value for the 10-year Treasury. The model uses fed funds, the 15-year moving average of CPI (an inflation expectations proxy), the yen/dollar exchange… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 10, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Jobs Day! The February jobs report was generally positive, with payroll easily beating estimates at 235k compared to the forecast of 200k. Wage growth was pretty strong, coming in line with expectations at 2.8%. Equities have responded positively to the data, whereas bonds… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Equity markets remain relatively calm as the ECB decided to leave its monetary policy unchanged. During a press conference, Mario Draghi stated that even though risks have become less pronounced, global factors are still a threat to the overall stability of the Eurozone. We… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 8, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Populist candidates in both France and the Netherlands are seeing their polling numbers deteriorate. In France, Marine Le Pen is holding at around 26% support, which is a statistical dead heat with Emmanuel Macron. She was leading by up to seven points last month. … Read More »
Daily Comment (March 7, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] In Washington, the wheels of policy continue to move forward. The GOP has offered its first swing at replacing the Affordable Care Act (ACA). It keeps many of the more popular measures, such as pre-existing condition coverage and child coverage up to age 26. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Assassination of Kim Jong Nam (March 6, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady On February 13th, Kim Jong Nam, the older half-brother of Kim Jong Un, the leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), was assassinated at an airport in Malaysia. This event offers insights into the “Hermit Kingdom” and shows the audacious nature of the regime. In this report, we begin with a… Read More »