Research & News
Daily Comment (September 9, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There were two big news items overnight. First, North Korea detonated a nuclear device overnight, its fifth such test. Early reports suggest the blast was in the 20 to 30 kiloton range, not a big bomb (by comparison, the standard American warhead, W-88, is 475 kilotons),… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 8, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] This morning’s big news is the ECB’s decision to leave policy unchanged. The EUR rallied, Treasuries dipped and Eurozone yields rose as well. We are well into Draghi’s press conference at the time of this writing and it is evident that the ECB did nothing at… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 7, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are quiet again this morning, with the focus mostly on policy. The ECB meets on Thursday. Although there is a need for the bank to have a wider range of bonds to buy to maintain QE, the Germans are uncomfortable with easing the rules… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 6, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Well, it’s time to say goodbye to the summer. Our reflections on the long weekend’s news: The lead article in Sunday’s NYT was all about climate change and coastal flooding. The report documented rising sea waters affecting numerous communities along the Atlantic Seaboard, although there were… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 2, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee At the recent Kansas City FRB’s gathering at Jackson Hole, the tone from policymakers turned surprisingly hawkish. Vice Chair Stanley Fischer was quoted as saying that two rates hikes are possible this year and the upcoming FOMC meeting in September could generate a rate hike if the payroll numbers are on trend. … Read More »
Daily Comment (September 2, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy labor data day…just before Labor Day weekend! We will spend much of this report going over the data but we want to make a couple of comments about yesterday’s ISM manufacturing data. The report came in unusually weak, at 49.4 compared to expectations of 52.0. … Read More »
Daily Comment (September 1, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s global manufacturing PMI day (see Foreign Economic News section for full data table). China’s official PMI came in better than expected, crossing into expansionary territory with a reading above 50. At the same time, China’s Caixin PMI reading came in slightly below expectations but remained… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 31, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Talks of a Fed hike in September are intensifying as we approach the FOMC meeting on September 20-21 and markets look to the release of the employment report as an important indication of the possible policy rate path. Treasuries have sold off in August; the 10-year… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 30, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer gave an interview on Bloomberg TV this morning indicating that although a September rate hike is data-dependent, the likelihood of a move has increased. This comes after Fischer’s interview last week, which was also generally considered hawkish. Following the two Fischer… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – What’s Putin up to? (August 29, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady Over the past few months, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been unusually active on multiple fronts. He has expanded his military operations in the Middle East in support of Syrian President Assad, boosted troop strength on the Ukrainian border and conducted a major purge and restructuring of the Russian government. He has also… Read More »