Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 27, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee The consensus estimate for Q4 2016 S&P 500 operating earnings growth is 3.2%, which translates into a forecast of $118.35 per share for the S&P 500, using Thomson/Reuters data. Using a similar growth rate, the Standard and Poor’s calculation of operating earnings generates annual earnings of $102.16. Simply put, these two sources… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 27, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was a quiet night overall; the big news is Q4 GDP, which we will cover below. Here are a few items we are watching: The Italian Constitutional Court finally clarified the 2015 election reform law, known as the “Italicum.” It ruled against a… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 26, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Global equities are holding this week’s gains on renewed optimism that tax changes and infrastructure spending will lift the economy and earnings. We note that the GOP House leadership is pressing the idea that tax changes should be mostly revenue-neutral and there is a… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 25, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] After a sluggish start to the year, equity markets have resumed their northward march. There isn’t a whole lot of news to trigger this rise, although the reversal of the Obama policy on pipelines may have lifted hopes that deregulation is really on the… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (January 2017)
Letter to Investors 2016 was full of surprises, and we expect that 2017 will be just as surprising. As we discussed in last quarter’s letter, the job of an investment manager is to navigate the world that is, not the world that we would like to have. Thus, rather than try to correctly predict what… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 24, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The big news overnight came from the U.K. where the Supreme Court ruled that Parliament must move on Brexit before an Article 50 declaration can be made. Although this decision is being portrayed as a setback for PM May, it isn’t exactly a huge… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – War Gaming: Part II (January 23, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady Two weeks ago, we began this two-part report by examining America’s geographic situation and how it is conducive to superpower status. This condition is problematic for foreign powers because it can be almost impossible to significantly damage America’s industrial base in a conventional war with the U.S. In addition, it would be very… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 23, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was a rather tumultuous weekend with the incoming administration sparring with the media over a number of issues. Those factors are being hashed out in the media so we won’t focus on them. However, what we are paying attention to is the impact… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 20, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Inauguration Day! As President Obama exits the White House and President Trump takes control, the new administration will begin to settle in. One of the characteristics of any new president and his team is that nearly all the members of the incoming administration… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 20, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee After a short foray into emerging markets, we exited that position in our latest allocation. Prior to the Trump victory, we had expected the dollar to weaken which would have supported emerging markets. However, the dollar’s resurgence is a bearish factor for emerging markets, leading the Asset Allocation Committee to look elsewhere… Read More »