Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkish Coup, Part III (August 8, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we recounted the events of Turkey’s recent coup and some of our thoughts about why the coup failed and who was behind it. This week we will discuss the unfolding purge, including the role of Fethullah Gulen, and discuss the impact on regional geopolitics. In this week’s report, we will examine… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 8, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity markets continue to move higher across the globe as the dollar rises in the wake of Friday’s employment data. We have seen two consecutive strong employment reports and this has raised expectations of tighter monetary policy. As tightening expectations ramp up, the dollar is steadily… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 5, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big news today is the employment report, which we will cover in detail below. We do want to note that economic data from Germany and the U.K. were unusually weak and natural gas inventories recorded a rare August draw in stockpiles. There has been some… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 5, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week’s GDP data for Q2 came in below expectations, rising 1.2%. Consumption was robust, accounting for 2.8% of GDP growth, but investment reduced growth by 1.7% and government peeled 0.2% from output. Net exports added 0.2% to GDP, but we would not be surprised to see the sector revised downward due… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 4, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big news today is that the BOE cut rates 25 bps, to 0.25%, and clearly signaled a move to zero by year’s end. It also increased QE by £60 bn and will include corporate bonds in its purchases. This is the bank’s first rate cut… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 3, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] In the wake of the BOJ and Abe disappointment yesterday, we have been observing a steady backup of long duration yields. So far, this isn’t anything too serious, but the market narrative behind it is important. There is a growing concern that BOJ monetary policy may… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 2, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big news overnight came from Japan as PM Abe’s cabinet approved the ¥28 trillion stimulus package. Actual new spending is only about a quarter of the headline number. The JPY appreciated on the news and the JGB saw a modest uptick in yields. Overall, the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkish Coup, Part II (August 1, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we began a three-part series on the attempted Turkish coup that started on Friday, July 15. In Part I, we examined Turkey’s history to frame the historical conditions that affected the failed coup. As promised, this week’s report will discuss the actual coup. The Coup Around 7:30 p.m. Eastern European Standard… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 1, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s global PMI day today. As we note below, most of the data came in around expectations. Australia was unusually robust while the U.K. was rather weak. Overall, the data suggests a global economy that is mostly steady. We had two fed officials speak over the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 29, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee In the most recent rebalance of our Asset Allocation portfolios, we maintained an allocation to emerging market equities in the Aggressive Growth portfolio. As we have noted in the past, there is a positive relationship between the dollar’s exchange rate and the relative performance of developed market equities and emerging market equities.… Read More »