Research & News
Daily Comment (December 14, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s FOMC day! The statement comes out at 2:00 EST with the press conference a half hour later. We will also get new forecasts and a refreshed “dots” plot. Market expectations call for a “dovish tightening,” where the FOMC raises rates by 25 bps… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 13, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The FOMC begins its meeting today. Tomorrow we expect to see a 25 bps rate hike and little, if any, change to the structure of the dots plot. These expectations are based on the idea that, like all of us, the FOMC doesn’t know… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2017 Geopolitical Outlook (December 12, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady (This will be the last WGR for 2016. The next report will be published on January 9, 2017.) As is our custom, we close out the current year with our outlook for the next one. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 12, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The two major news items this morning are OPEC and China. First, OPEC managed to procure pledged cuts of 558 kbpd from non-OPEC producers. This is the first time since 2001 that the cartel has managed to get production cut pledges from producers outside… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 9, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee The rapid rise in longer duration Treasury yields since the presidential election has been surprising. As of December 8, the 10-year T-note yield was approximately 2.40%. Although President-elect Trump’s policies will probably be inflationary, it is still unclear how much of his arguably vague plans will get passed. It is possible the… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 9, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] BREAKING NEWS: The ECB has rejected a request by the troubled Italian bank Monte dei Paschi (BMDPY, $0.18) for an extension of the deadline for the bank to raise more capital. Italian banking authorities had requested more time to complete a €5 bn rescue… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 8, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The ECB gave us a modest surprise this morning by announcing a tapering of QE. Expectations called for an extension of the current program through September. Now, through March 2017, the bank will purchase €80 bn of bonds; from April to December, the bank… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 7, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Today is the 75th anniversary of the bombing of Pearl Harbor, a monumental event that led to U.S. involvement in WWII and eventually acceptance of the superpower role at Bretton Woods in 1945. It was another quiet market overnight. Perhaps the most important overnight… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 6, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was mostly quiet overnight with the market’s focus on the aftermath of the Italian referendum. The most relevant concern is the Italian banking system. The lead headline in today’s FT is “Monte dei Paschi Warned to Brace for State Bailout after Renzi Defeat.” … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Losing the Philippines: Part 2 (December 5, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady (Next week, we will publish our 2017 Geopolitical Outlook; it will be the last issue of 2016.) In Part 1 of this report, we discussed the geography of the Philippines and examined the nation’s history, focusing on its relations with the U.S. In Part 2 of this report, we will discuss President Rodrigo… Read More »