Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Losing the Philippines: Part 1 (November 21, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady (There will be no report published over the Thanksgiving holiday. Part 2 of this report will be issued on December 5.) In May, Rodrigo Duterte was elected president of the Philippines, winning 39% of the vote. He is the first resident of the island of Mindanao to hold the office, making him a… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 21, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The weekend’s news flow seemed to be all about the president-elect. Perhaps the most interesting was an interview in the Hollywood Reporter[1] with Steve Bannon, the incoming president’s chief strategist. Bannon outlined his policies and it dovetails with our read on him and the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 18, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Trumponomics looks as if it will be a combination of fiscal stimulus, trade restrictions and deregulation. It looks very likely that environmental regulations will be reversed and there have been promises of financial deregulation as well. The first two will likely reflate the economy. Proposed deregulation may help hold down energy prices… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 18, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was another quiet night with lots of political speculation and some news. Gen. Michael Flynn was apparently offered National Security Advisor, and Sen. Jeff Session has been offered Attorney General, according to the AP. Meanwhile, in the markets, we are seeing some moderation… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 17, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] In terms of market and economic news, it was a fairly quiet night. Chair Yellen gave testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. The prepared remarks were, for the most part, unremarkable. There was no mention of the new president which, for Yellen,… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 16, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] After a day of profit taking, the previous trends have returned; the dollar is up as are Treasury yields. Gold prices are lower. Oil prices are giving back some of their large gains from yesterday as the API data showed a larger than expected… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 15, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It looks like we are getting a profit taking day across the financial and commodity markets, with Treasuries, oil and gold rallying, while the greenback takes a breather. Equities are modestly higher. We see a couple of items in play. First, numerous markets have… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – President Trump: A Preliminary Analysis (November 14, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady On November 8th, Donald Trump shocked the country and the world by defeating Sen. Hillary Clinton in the U.S. presidential race by accumulating a majority in the Electoral College. Mr. Trump, the first president in U.S. history to gain the presidency without having been previously elected to office or served in the military,… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 14, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The Trump market effect continues this morning; equities are flat to higher, but the most consistent market action has been in interest rates and the dollar, which continue to march higher. Like everyone else, we are trying to determine the impact of Trump’s policies… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 11, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Trump victory has significant ramifications for the economy and markets. The president-elect’s platform is somewhat ambiguous, which isn’t all that unusual; candidates want to build in some degree of flexibility that a detailed platform can reduce. Despite this lack of clarity, there are elements that are emerging that offer a guide… Read More »