Research & News
Daily Comment (June 28, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing a rebound in risk markets this morning as there is growing speculation that the U.K. and the EU will be able to negotiate an acceptable deal. This sentiment is rising despite comments from Chancellor Merkel indicating that there will be no “cherry picking”… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2016 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (June 27, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for the rest of the… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 27, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] British politics is in deep turmoil. The Labour Party is in disarray after 17 members called for the ouster of party leader Jeremy Corbyn. The Labour leader is deeply unpopular with the MPs but the party faithful adore him. Labour Party officials partly blame Corbyn for… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 24, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, St. Louis FRB President Bullard issued a position paper that represents a significant departure from what has been standard policy at the Federal Reserve. Our first hint that something had changed was noticed in the dots chart. First, there were two dots that indicated no change in policy in 2017… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 24, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] In a major shock, U.K. voters chose to exit the EU in yesterday’s referendum. The vote, which ran roughly 52/48 in favor of Brexit, defied polls and, for the first time in our experience, the betting pools as well. In the U.K., this is the second… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 23, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Voters in the U.K. go to the polls today to decide whether or not they are staying in the EU. The markets, however, appear to have already voted as we are seeing full “risk-on” activity, with the dollar and yen lower and Treasury yields higher. In… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 22, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] On the eve of the vote in the U.K., polling suggests that the Brexit vote will be close. However, the message coming from the betting pools maintains the leave camp at roughly 25%. (Source: Bloomberg) This chart shows the leave bets, which peaked around 45% but… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 21, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Polling suggests that the Brexit vote will be close. However, that isn’t the message coming from the betting pools, where the leave camp lost another four points. (Source: Bloomberg) This chart shows the leave bets, which peaked around 45% but have fallen precipitously to the 24%… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Real Risk of Brexit (June 20, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady In February, we presented an analysis of Brexit, which is shorthand for Britain’s potential departure from the European Union (EU). The referendum is slated for June 23.[1] In general, the points discussed in the aforementioned report on the economy, trade, regulatory policy, immigration and the U.K.’s geopolitical “footprint” all still hold. There… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 20, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There are three big stories today. Leaning toward Bremain: In the wake of the assassination of MP Jo Cox, the first polls out suggest that the Bremain camp has halted the Brexit momentum. Still, polls suggest a tight race, with 45% wanting to remain in the… Read More »