Research & News
Daily Comment (November 1, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big news overnight came from China, where the PMI data was better than forecast (see below). The chart below of the Caixin[1] PMI shows evidence of an improving Chinese economy. The PMI has been improving since Q1, with a clear rise since late… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of the Reserve Currency: Part 2 (October 31, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady In Part 1 of this report, we discussed how the reserve currency facilitates trade, provided a short history of the dollar’s evolution as the reserve currency and examined the theoretical backdrop of the reserve currency and its role as a global public good. In this week’s report, we will conclude with the economics and… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 31, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Halloween! There was lots of news over the weekend. Let’s dig in: The return of the emails. On Friday, FBI Director Comey announced the agency had come across a massive number of emails related to the private server issue that somehow ended up… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 28, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee My weekend exercise is to take my dogs on long walks. Both dogs seem to enjoy these walks and I use the time to listen to podcasts. I recently listened to a long podcast that interviewed Sebastian Mallaby, a British journalist and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He has… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 28, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As we discuss below in detail, Q3 GDP rose 2.9%, exceeding estimates of 2.6%. The quick analysis of the data shows that two components were key to the report. First, investment rebounded but mostly due to a rebuild in inventories. The other major surprise… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 27, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Belgian political leaders were able to overcome Walloon’s opposition to the free trade deal with Canada and so, at the deadline, it looks like the agreement will be approved, assuming none of the other 27 nations decide to oppose the deal, too. Most of… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 26, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are weaker this morning off some disappointing earnings reports. This shift in sentiment is routine during earnings season. It does appear that the EU-Canadian free trade deal may be back on track as the Walloons are reportedly moderating their opposition.[1] Still,… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2016)
Letter to Investors In our July letter we wrote about the “is-ought problem,” the tendency to confuse the world we have with the world we wish we had. As we noted then, this problem represents a major danger around election time for investors (and others). The danger is that investors may be so consumed with… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 25, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Overnight news flow was unusually low. Earnings are generally coming in favorably as energy companies recover. Equity markets remain relatively firm. The new money market rules officially went into effect on Oct. 14th and, now that they are in place, the short-term money markets… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of the Reserve Currency: Part 1 (October 24, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady One of the more interesting developments in this presidential political cycle has been the near total abandonment of free trade. Neither presidential candidate supports the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP) or the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), the topic of last week’s report. The primary reason for this backlash against free trade is the… Read More »